Sunday, May 31, 2009

NL Ranking Week 3

1(2) Chicago Ballbusters 52-25 (17-14)
Leads OPS by more than 40 points, but their division by a hangnail. Chicago needs to have a strong week against tough opponents (.588 combined Win %), They draw SD, Cinci, SFE, and CHY before the all-star break. This will be the week to see if they really are #1 in the NL.

2(3) New York Burros 52-25 (22-8)
Usually the resident are the #1 spot and former WS champ, They will be ready to reclaim the top spot if Chicago even breathes wrong against their opponents this week. A relatively easier week ahead in NY, where they dray CPS, CHY, MIL, and PHI.


3(1) Cincinnati Bowties 47-30 (16-14)
2nd in Pitching to NY, but they also are allowing the leagues least hits and 2nd in overall WHIP to Chicago. Pitching is still very much strong in Cinci.

4(5) Santa Fe Blaze 44-33 (18-13)
D'Angelo Martin's On the Job learning at SS for SFE is killing their fielding. Already leading the league in Errors and with 4 – plays, he is struggling to say the very least.

5(7) Cheyenne Marmots 47-30 (17-12)
Continue to climb even after losing unexpected overachiever Brady Forest for the season, Forest had found a pitching groove that anyone with his skills should not have found, His pact with the devil has apparently expired.


6(4) San Diego Surf 42-35 (15-16)
Prospect SP Amos Casey did an admirable job of filling in for injured Deion Dunn, but has only rewarded with a 2-5 record and a 4.44 ERA. Preview of things to come in SD I guess.


7(6) Colorado Springs Organizational Filler 44-33 (20-10)
Tony Bravo as a rookie is leading the Nl in Hitting. Don't even bring up the fact he also has 18 HR and 50 rbi and you can guess who is still a front runner for NL ROY.

8(9) Atlanta Braves 38-39 (14-16)
The Braves have to be disappointed in the production of FA pickup Erubiel Lecuona who is well below his career averages of .278 with 25 hr.

9(10) Richmond Revolution 37-40 (15-16)
Ruby Harris is showing a little more power this season, but again is only bringing a .250 BA to the table and striking out at an increased rate.Kind of a mixed bag for S12


10(13) San Antonio Alamos 36-41 (18-12)
As predicted the team had their best week and climbed up the rankings. Led my SP Corey Webb who has been lights out this season, the team's pitching has played well above their heads all season long

11(11) Florida Sting Ray 34-43 (13-17)
Add the Top Home run guy in League history, lose nothing major from the current roster, you do the math.

12(12) Philadelphia Balboas 34-43 (13-18)
A notoriously slow starting team, Philly doesn't look like they are able to come out of it this season. In the next week, they will need to decide which way they are leaning run for the playoffs this season, or play for the future and dump salary.


13(8) Milwaukee Blue Stockings 33-44 (9-22)
Been in a lot of close games 30 1 run games, where they have lost 2/3 of them, they change that up and they have a .500 record. To many close games for them to be 10 under .500. They have a couple small tweaks and they are in these games.

14(14) Iowa City KAMIKAZES 35-42 (16-15)
Playing competitively, but still just missing the climb up the Power ranking, If they turn a halfway solid week and Milwaukee continues to plummet they should see a decent climb next week.

15(15) Colorado Mile High Club 24-53 (11-20)
AI
has ran the franchise since early May, Even their highly regarded prospects stacked up in AAA have only managed 14 wins this season. Come on Fregoe come back! You were one of the vocal brothers in our league.

16 (16) Detroit Lucky 10-67 (2-28)
Team is going nowhere fast With AI running the Show, pitching is burned out, Their savior Owner look one look at the state of the team and turned coat. First the Auto Industry, now this Detroit needs a Bailout people!


Saturday, May 30, 2009

Trade Review, Part 1

I was asked to take a look back at some of the trades that have gone through this season. In each case, I'm going to do a little analysis of why I think it made sense (or not) for the teams involved.

I'll try to do something once a week or so, just covering the more significant deals. (Sorry to those hoping for an in-depth breakdown of Henry Bailey for Eddie Milton.)

Hopefully this helps some of the newer players have a better understanding of why people make certain deals, and what to look out for when they make their own trades in the future.


Burlington trades Johnny Stroud and Pedro Osuna to the NY Burros for Eugene Buckley

Why it makes sense for Burlington: The Ice Storm finished with just 802 runs in season 11, placing them 14th out of the 16 teams in the AL. The team's ERA was 5th in the league, so there wasn't much question what needed to be improved. Stroud is a slugging 2B who posted 36 HR in a slight pitchers' park in season 11, a solid OBP guy (career numbers around .350) and one of the better all-around players in the league. Osuna's glove isn't as good as Stroud's, but he can rake as well. He posted 37, 36, 35 and 40 HR in his first four ML seasons, all in a slight pitchers' park. You can pretty much just pencil him in for a .300/.370/.550 (BA/OBP/SLG) every season. Both players are still young, with Stroud making the minimum and Osuna in just his first year of arbitration-eligibility. Both figure to anchor the Ice Storm's lineup for many years to come.
Why it makes sense for the NY Burros: The Burros have lived on their starting pitching for basically the entire history of the franchise, and Buckley seems like he'll fit in very nicely in their rotation in a few years. His stamina, control, splits and top two pitches all say "future ace." The Burros haven't ever had a top-15 pick in the draft, meaning they often have to land their top SP via trade or IFA. The steep price the Burros paid for Buckley gives you a pretty good indication how much they value a front-line SP.
And the winner is...: No one really "won" this trade. NY gave up an awful lot to get Buckley, but sometime around season 16, they'll be happy to have him. There's no question that Burlington markedly improved their team as well.


NY Bombers trade Wilson Marshall to Chicago Ballbusters for Alan Benes

Why it makes sense for the Ballbusters: Marshall's control, splits and pitch ratings all mean he's still a useful ML pitcher, regardless of what his 7.29 ERA in season 11 might suggest. His contract expires after season 12, meaning Chicago won't be stuck with a long deal for a declining player.

Why it makes sense for the Bombers: This played out as a pure salary dump. The Bombers cut Benes (who was eligible for arbitration) just hours after the deal went through. The trade saved them $4.8M this season, which they hoped to use to land a front-line FA pitcher on the open market. Benes is still a free agent -- his numbers are okay, but he'll never be more than a backup IF on a good team.

And the winner is...: This one benefitted both teams to some degree as well, although the benefit to the Bombers was lessened greatly by the fact that they were not able to parlay that extra cash into signing either of the premier SP on the free agent market this off-season. Marshall has been good for Chicago, but I don't think the Bombers are losing any sleep over his departure.


San Juan trades Tony Jacquez to Toledo for Jimmie Eusebio.

Why it makes sense for the Sixburghs: They add a 25-year-old starting pitcher with a proven track record, who is locked up for four years at the relatively inexpensive price of $5.9M per season.

Why it makes sense for the Holy: This was kind of a curious trade for Toledo. They gave up a pretty good, young SP and got back a guy with a similar contract (3 years @ $5.8M vs. 4 years @ $5.9M) who mostly plays the corner OF spots and doesn't get on base all that well (.316 and .328 OBP the previous two seasons). Jacquez hits for power (33, 31, 27 HR the previous three seasons) but isn't a defensive wizard or a great base-runner. The trade cleared one year of salary off of their books, but that was about it.

And the winner is...: At the time, I would have graded this one as a knockout for San Juan. Eusebio is never going to be an ace, but he's a good, solid #3 starter who's going to continue to be solid throughout his contract. The replacement level on SP is much, much lower than at the corner OF spots (it's easier to sign a corner OF for the minimum who could approximate Jacquez's numbers than it would be to sign a SP for the minimum to approximate Eusebio's). Thusfar this season, Jacquez has played significantly better than his career numbers would suggest and Eusebio has played significantly worse. Still this seems like a deal Toledo might like to have back.



Louisville trades Max Leary and Nolan Webber to Milwaukee for Rolando James

Why it makes sense for Louisville: James is a below-average defensive catcher, but makes up for it with a superb bat. His contact, power, VL and batting eye are all all-star-caliber and are solid enough to still make him dangerous against righties, even with a sub-par VR split. He's in his first year of arbitration-eligibility, so he's still relatively cheap and they have him for three full seasons before he can test the free agent market.

Why it makes sense for Milwaukee:
This looks like it was more or less a salary dump from a team that didn't want to pay James. The Blues got back a couple middling prospects, neither of whom will ever approach the numbers James has already put up. Webber's projected offensive numbers are in the 49-59 range except for a 69 batting eye. He'll top out around a .700 OPS-type guy in the majors (kind of low for a 3B), and while Leary has some more impressive projections (contact and eye in the 70s, 89 speed), he hits with very little power, has so-so splits and a dreadful baserunning rating (which will negate the value of his speed).

And the winner is...: Louisville by a wide margin. James has continued to put up above-average numbers since the trade, while neither of the guys the Blues got will ever be significant contributors to a championship team.




Madison trades Damian Carter, Tori Hanson and Bert Jones to Iowa City for Trent Boone, Nate House and Scot Branson.

Why it makes sense for Madison: The Massa's entered the year knowing that they'd be in a three-way fight for the division title, and wanted to upgrade their pitching. This was sort of an odd trade, though. Pitchers with control under 60 are typically somewhat dicey, and the Massa's traded for three guys with projected control of 40, 42 and 45. Boone is the best of the three. His stamina, VL/VR splits, velocity, GB/FB ratio and top two splits all suggest he'll be a future ace, and yet his lousy control has him sporting a 1.64 WHIP at Low A ball right now. House and Branson are pretty much the same story. Either Madison knows something about pitching that no one else does, or this was a huge, huge mistake.

Why it makes sense for Iowa City: They gave up three pitchers who will likely never pitch up to the level of their OVR numbers and got back three very good players. Carter will be a very good #2 or #3 starter. His VR split is a little low, but his control, VL, GB/FB and top two pitches are all good ML-caliber numbers. Hanson will be an average defensive catcher, but will put up 25-30 HR and an 850 or higher OPS in the majors. Jones won't be a star, but will be a good, above-average ML corner OF.

And the winner is...: Iowa City simply stole these players from an experienced (and past champion) owner. That Kamikazes franchise has a long climb ahead of it, but deals like this make it look like they're just a few seasons away from being a legitimate player in the NL pennant race. I would be surprised if any of the arms Madison got ever become even slightly above-average pitchers in the majors. I was shocked to see the Massa's make this deal.



Toledo trades Kevin Yamaguchi and Alan Chambers to Atlanta for Miguel Calvo and Trenidad Durham

Why it makes sense for Atlanta: Signing Calvo to a three-year deal was a huge mistake, and this deal eliminated it. Calvo is 32 years old with a makeup rating in the 50s and has already fallen eight points of his peak OVR. That's not the kind of guy you want to throw 3 years, $12M at. Durham is a solid SP, but with the Braves not yet ready to contend in the NL East, there's no real reason to pay those two guys $7M this season. The guys they got back won't ever be good ML players (both have control ratings in the 40s, just like the last trade).

Why it makes sense for Toledo: The Holy really didn't give up much, and got a good SP (Durham) very cheap for this year. Calvo's awful contract is tough to swallow, but if Durham helps Toledo win the pennant, it'll be worth it.

And the winner is...: This one works well for both teams. The Braves escaped a big mistake (Calvo's deal) and Toledo got a good SP without trading much away. Had the Braves not signed that bad deal, they could have gotten a useful prospect for Durham, but ridding themselves of Calvo's deal makes this a palatable trade.

AL NORTH S12 Draft Recap

Toledo Holy

Needed from the draft: LF, C, BEST

Round

Pick

Player

Pos

Age

Back-

Contract

Bonus

ground

SUMMARY

1

24

Barney Russ

SP

18

HS

---

---

Middle of the rotation guy who brings 3 solid pitches and great control. Russ has middle of the road velocity and above average splits. He is young enough to make his projections and has great makeup. He does have signing issues though.

2

75

Jerry Jerchower

SS

22

COL

---

---

Below average in the field, with an average bat. Jerchower does have plus speed and base running. At 22 you would hope to see he further developed with his below average makeup.

3

107

Jesus Montero

RF

18

HS

---

---

Good speed, good contact and an awesome bunter, he has poor left hand splits and reduced power to work with.

4

139

Ahmad Tracy

RP

18

HS

---

---

3 pitch flame thrower, with average control, he could be a killer Left hand specialist, but will struggle against the righties.

5

171

Gary O'Neill

RF

18

HS

---

---

Powerful swing versus Left handed pitching, He will struggle against everyone else.

Summary: If they get Russ to sign their pitching will be in great shape. Jerchower is a stretch pick who will never make his projections. I smell a bust. The rest of the draft is full of 1 tool guys who could get limited opportunities.

Grade: B-


Fargo Fevola:

Needed from the draft: CF, 3B, LF

Round

Pick

Player

Pos

Age

Back-

Contract

Bonus

ground

SUMMARY

1

11

Murray Woolf

2B

18

HS

---

---

Solid contact hitter doesn't offer much power but isn't inept at the long ball. He has excellent splits and should have a great productive ML career.

1

45

Tex Ashley

CF

20

JC

MILB

$600K

Above average Cf with good contact and plus speed. Ashley projects to be a top of the lineup hitter with the entire tool except any form of power. He is still quality in the late 1st round.

2

63

Buddy Dubler

1B

20

JC

MILB

$550K

Solid hitting 1B with decent speed but poor base running. Dubler is not going to be an all-star but should crack the everyday lineup at 1B for a number of years.

3

95

Malachi Smoltz

3B

18

HS

MILB

$425K

Power first swing, Malachi has low splits and is better suited to field in the OF than the Inf. He is not a bad 3rd rounder for the money.

4

127

Preston Rolls

SP

21

COL

---

---

Poor pitch selection and even worse control makes is signing a doubt, Roll does have great stamina and splits with Fargo wants to give him a chance just in case.

5

159

Dan Caseres

LF

18

HS

MILB

$250K

Fastest no hit 1B I have ever seen, his value like his defense is limited without some sort of Boost.

Summary: Woolf is a great positional player who could slide to 3B is required. Ashley is a superior CF candidate. All and all Fargo stacked up on many quality fielders and established a good draft for S12

Grade: A


Madison Massa's.
Needs from the draft: SP, RP, BEST

Round

Pick

Player

Pos

Age

Back-

Contract

Bonus

ground

SUMMARY

1

32

Richard Martin

RP

18

HS

---

---

4 pitch fireball reliever. He has excellent splits and good pitch selection, but has a poor durability to stamina ratio. Should be dominant every 3rd day or so.

1

34

Alvin Frank

SP

18

HS

---

---

He has the pitches to be an ML starter but does not have the splits or the control to succeed for any stretch. He needs at least one projection to be bumped for any shot with the Massa's

1

39

Matt Fitzgerald

SP

21

COL

---

---

Soft tossing starter with great pitch selection but very average splits, he will probably bottom out as a 4A caliber player.

2

66

Harry Trevino

2B

22

COL

---

---

Talent wise he could have went in the 1st round, but he has sign ability issues and as a result slid here. Above average hitter with good pop, Trevino struggles some against righties, but should hold his own if given the opportunity.

2

83

Turner Manning

RP

18

HS

---

---

Manning could be the most dominant 5 pitch count pitcher the league has ever seen. Great splits solid 2 pitches and poor stamina and durability. He will pitch in 25 games with 8 innings of work for someone.

3

115

Dweezil Fields

P

22

COL

---

---

AAA quality splits ruin an otherwise solid pitcher with 4 solid pitches good control and stamina.

4

147

Luke O'Brien

P

20

JC

---

---

Poor control and a below average set of splits will limit Luke to AA in his career.

5

179

Nick Roth

CF

19

JC

---

---

Good defense and great speed will help Roth move up the ladder quickly, the fact he has almost no bat will hold him back. He does have a good swing against left handers.

Summary: Went after pitching and really swung at a lot of bad pitches. Martin is flawed but could still be effective if watched closely. Reliever Manning has the same dilemma. Other than that 2B Trevino is the only other value guy and he might not sign. Tough draft for Madison

Grade: C-

New York Bombers.

Needs from the draft: RP, RF, C

Round

Pick

Player

Pos

Age

Back-

Contract

Bonus

ground

SUMMARY

1

27

Patrick Foster

SP

18

HS

---

---

4 solid pitches great stamina and control with above average splits, will allow Foster to round out someone's rotation. The Bombers had to be looking for more out of this pick, but they got a useless arm that isn't quite a top tier starter but should fetch a decent amount of value.

1

35

Jody Olsen

SP

21

COL

---

---

Soft throwing with average pitches, Olsen does have good control and great stamina, and He will struggle against righties if you stack the lineup against him.

2

84

Carl Hissey

RF

22

COL

MILB

$550K

Nightmare in the field, Bernie has already identified that and moved him to a DH role, He hits very well with decent power and solid splits.

3

116

Eli Carrara

C

18

HS

MILB

$425K

Solid defensive catcher with fair speed and good base running, he is not the offensive catcher that the AL usually features though and he might be better suited for NL style play.

4

148

Justin Johnson

SS

18

HS

MILB

$350K

Solid with below average power hitter who runs at a fair rate. He is probably going to top out at AAA with a few late September call ups.

5

180

Gene Mitchell

LF

21

COL

MILB

$250K

Below average hitter with good speed and poor base running. His only attribute of note is his speed which is cancelled out by his lack of discipline.

Summary: Brought in a few solid pitchers for the farm, Foster is hit or miss depending on the day I evaluate him. Olsen is flawed against righties but is great with everything else. Carrara is a great Pick for the 3rd round and has Big League potential. No one Drafted in New York is that far out of getting ML at bats in the future.

Grade: B