Tuesday, June 17, 2008

NL POWER RANKINGS Week 8

The final Power ranking of the year and we show little movement in the rankings. Only 4 teams have a shot at a wild card berth and each division is all but locked up. The Burros don't have far to go to once again have home field advantage in the playoffs. Interesting differences in the NL this season the top team in steals Nashville with 247 steals has more in this one season than Colorado has had in their franchise's history. In fact, I am actually 4th all-time in career stolen bases. You can actually look it up if you don't believe me. I'm tied with a few others though. If Cleveland has the worst record this season they will have had the last 4 #1 picks. Sorry no interesting facts for each team this week. I have had a few health issues as of late, so time has been tight. I have added a new blog, that appears to the Left. The Ryan World Hall of Records is now open.


  1. Previous Week: 1

    Record: 95-48 (12-8)

    Expected Win%: .700

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: CLINCHED DIVISION. 12 to clinch 1st round bye.




  2. Previous Week: 2

    Record: 75-48 (15-5)

    Expected Win%: .651

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 3 to clinch division


  3. Previous Week: 3

    Record: 88-55 (14-7)

    Expected Win%: .610

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 11 to clinch playoff spot



  4. Previous Week: 4

    Record: 85-57 (15-7)

    Expected Win%: .571

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 10 to clinch division


  5. Previous Week: 5

    Record: 80-63(12-8)

    Expected Win%: .585

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 14 from clinching wild card


  6. Previous Week: 6

    Record: 81-62 (13-8)

    Expected Win%: .563

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 13 from clinching wild card



  7. Previous Week: 7

    Record: 75-69 (11-10)

    Expected Win%:.548

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 19 from clinching wild card.



  8. Previous Week: 9

    Record: 74-70 (15-6)

    Expected Win%: .552

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 20 from wild card


  1. Previous Week: 8

    Record: 70-74 (10-12)

    Expected Win%: .466

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 9 from Elimination



  2. Previous Week: 10

    Record: 67-77 (7-14)

    Expected Win%:.465

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 6 from elimination



  3. Previous Week: 12

    Record: 66-78 (12-10)

    Expected Win%: .418

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 5 from elimination


  4. Previous Week: 13

    Record: 65-78 (12-8)

    Expected Win%: .400

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 4 for elimination


  5. Previous Week: 11

    Record: 62-81 (4-16)

    Expected Win%: .478

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: 1 from elimination


  6. Previous Week: 14

    Record: 51-92 (4-17)

    Expected Win%: .361

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: ELIMINATED


  7. Previous Week: 15

    Record: 48-96 (4-18)

    Expected Win%: .336

    News/Notes:

    Magic Number: ELIMINATED


  8. Previous Week: 16

    Record: 45-99 (8-14)

    Expected Win%: .311

    News/Notes: big turn around under Alebear might pass the freefalling Blues and finish out of last in the NL

    Magic Number: ELIMINATED

Hall Of Fame: Position Players

With many more significant statistical categories to draw from, there's bounds to be a big pool of position players in the discussion for the Hall of Fame.

I'm going to list the top 3 career leaders from each category. Anyone who leads in one of these categories, or who places in the top 3 in two of them will get consideration.

Batting Average: Neil Fletcher, Trenidad Beltran, Aaron Stone
On-Base Percentage: Neil Fletcher, Bill Darwin, Trenidad Beltran
Slugging Percentage: Vic Mullins, Matt Shave, Aaron Stone
Hits: Trenidad Beltran, Vic Mullins, George Harding
Doubles: Luis Amaral, Casey Kaline, Ozzie Watson
Triples: Harold Valdes, Ozzie Watson, Casey Kaline
Home Runs: Vic Mullins, Freddie Reynolds, George Harding
Runs: Vic Mullins, George Harding, Ozzie Watson
RBI: Vic Mullins, George Harding, Freddie Reynolds
Stolen Bases: Charlie Magruder, Ozzie Watson, Parker Riggs
Walks: Neil Fletcher, Bill Darwin, Hawk Powell

That leaves our list of candidates as follows

The case for inclusion: Owns three of the top five single-season home run marks. 1st overall in career HR, 5th in career batting average, 1st (by almost .060) in career slugging percentage, 1st (by almost .060) in career OPS, four MVPs, seven straight all-star selections. Four of the top five highest single-season RBI totals. Absolutely dominating in Colorado's run to the season 3 championship. He hit .434 with 9 HR in just 53 AB that postseason, posting an OPS of 1.489. Career postseason OPS of 1.157.
The case against him: Played in Colorado for his whole career, so his numbers are probably a little inflated.
The verdict: You can take 25% off of his HR total to account for the park effect of Coors, and he's still in the Hall easily. One of only a handful of truly, absolutely dominating players to sustain their excellence over the life of the league. He stands at 483 HR right now with just over a season left on his current contract. He's likely to reach 500 next year, and may hit 550 or 600 before retiring.


The case for inclusion: Owns the Ryan World record with an absurd 84 HR in season 6. Second on the career HR list with 426 right now. Oh, by the way, he's only 26. #3 in career RBI. Did I mention he's only 26? Career OPS over 1.000. Career postseason OPS of 1.481 in 13 games.
The case against him: Other than a lack of a ring, there's not a particularly compelling case against him to be made. Has been totally, totally dominant so far and probably has at least 10 good years left in him.
The verdict: Sure, something could go wrong... an injury, a trade to a team that demotes him for some ridiculous reason... but right now, it's almost impossible to come up with a reason he wouldn't make it. With his health rating (96), durability (97) and age (26), it's not out of the question that he could hit 1,000 HR before he retires.


The case for inclusion: #2 in career OPS from a traditionally power-poor position, #1 in career walks, #1 in OBP (.497 entering this season). Owns all five spots in the top-5 best OBP seasons in Ryan World history. Six all-star teams, six Silver Slugger awards, an MVP and a ring (Season 5 with the Burros). Totally dominant in the postseason 1.161 in 32 career games. Posted a .549 OBP (on base in 55% of his plate appearances!) in Burros' championship season.
The case against him: Had the misfortune of getting traded to Toledo, where his career promptly nose-dived off a cliff. Sat for half a year and started falling apart thanks to lousy training and inconsistent play. Only played in 89 games in season 7 despite being healthy. That sent his overall rating plunging 11 points in one year. Still signed for three more seasons, making it likely that his overall career stats will suffer.
The verdict: If he retired today, he would be a nearly automatic Hall Of Famer. Perhaps unfairly, there's a possibility that he could slide out of that realm in the next few years. Hopefully he can post decent enough numbers to avoid that.


The case for inclusion: #3 in career OBP, #5 in career OPS, #1 in career hits, #4 in career doubles. Has never posted on OBP below .400. Only one season with an OPS under 1.000. At least 110 RBI in every season (has 99 so far this year). Incredible 1.243 postseason OPS in run to Burros' season one championship. Still very close to peak ratings at the age of 32.
The case against him: Home run totals have slid recently (43 in season 6, 39 in season 7, only 23 in season 8).
The verdict: Probably pretty close right now. He's got three more seasons on his contract, and his candidacy could hinge on how those three seasons go. If he stays in Colorado, the park could help him put up big enough numbers to get in comfortably. If he goes somewhere and has a Neil Fletcher-like career path, he could be left out.


The case for inclusion: #3 in career slugging percentage, #3 in career batting average. Won a ring during season 3 with Colorado.
The case against him: Posted his most impressive numbers during his years in Colorado, and suffered a noticeable dropoff when he went to New York. Below-average defensively. So-so in the postseason (.840 OPS, even with most games coming with Colorado).
The verdict: At the age of 32, and with a health rating in the 50s, he's not likely to enjoy a long run in the future. His career numbers (.418 OBP, .674 SLG, 263 walks, 221 HR) are good, but are either slightly better or far worse than his contemporary Neil Fletcher, despite playing in a dramatic hitters' park while Fletcher played mostly in pitchers' parks. There are a lot of Colorado guys on this list-- that's not a coincidence. The park plays a big role in their numbers, so guys would really have to put up overwhelming numbers to be surefire Hall Of Famers there. It's certainly possible that he will sneak in, but even during his top years Stone was never the big feared bat on Colorado's team. Odds are he'll miss out.


The case for inclusion: Places #3 in career hits, #3 in home runs, #2 in runs, #2 in RBI. Six all-star games, two Gold Gloves, five Silver Sluggers.
The case against him: Appears to be something of a Coors Field product. His numbers since being traded to Cincinnati are exceptionally average. He had never posted a season OPS under 1.000 through seven seasons in Colorado, but sits at .759 in Cincinnati right now. Home run total has plunged from 45 to 15 in just one year. For his numbers to have dropped so dramatically so suddenly without a similar age or injury-related drop in ratings is quite damning.
The verdict: He's got another year on his deal to turn things around. If he has another .800 OPS, 20 HR year in Cincinnati, he should probably be dismissed as a product of Coors Field.


The case for inclusion: #1 in career stolen bases. Swiped 326 bases while only being caught 19 times.
The case against him: Sucked at everything else (.312 career OBP, .688 career OPS)
The verdict: Not even close. And stolen bases are way out of whack.


The case for inclusion: #2 in career stolen bases, #3 in doubles, #2 in triples, #3 in runs. Four all-star teams, 2 Silver Sluggers.
The case against him: Started his career with two very good seasons, but turned to just above average after that.
The verdict: Nope.


The case for inclusion: Ryan World-record 39-game hitting streak, #1 in doubles, #4 in triples. Solid postseason player, with .982 OPS in 33 career games.
The case against him: Consistently very good, never great. Has never put together a "signature season." Never had a 1.000 OPS, never hit more than 23 HR, never had 200 hits, never had 50 SB. No ring.
The verdict: Consistently very good is very good... but it won't get you to the Hall.


The case for inclusion: #1 in triples. 210 HR and .989 OPS are both very strong for a 2B. First five seasons were outstanding. 2 All-Star appearances, 2 Silver Sluggers.
The case against him: 60 of his 91 career triples came in the first two seasons before WIS corrected the "triples glitch" so they come with a major asterisk. So-so postseason performance (.777 OPS in 15 games). Sliding downhill fast. Dropped 7 OVR points since the start of last season and 15 points from his peak.
The verdict: Actually a lot closer than it might have appeared at first glance. His stats from his first five seasons are outstanding. However, since then (except for 1/3 season spent swinging at the short porch at Yankee Stadium) he's been very average. Only having 2 All-Star appearances is fairly damaging as well. He's close, but probably a no.


The case for inclusion: #2 in OBP, #2 in walks. Career OPS over 1.000, almost certain to pass 300 HR next season, and at only 32, he should end up with between 350 and 400 before he's done. Career OBP of .450. Has been a consistent 30 HR threat with 34+ in each of first 7 seasons. OPS over 1.000 in each of first 7 seasons. All-Star appearances and 1 Silver Slugger. Solid postseason performer with a .909 OPS in 62 games. Posted a 1.028 OPS and 9 HR in Burros' run to season one title and .902 OPS in Burros' season 5 championship. Put up 1.288 OPS for Bombers in season 7 playoffs.
The case against him: Only two all-star appearances, below-average 1B.
The verdict: Again, pretty close. He's got a John Olerud eye with Todd Helton power, minus the asterisk for park-aided stats. If he can play for another 3-4 years and continue to put up 25+ HR and OPS numbers over .925, he would have my vote, but I'm biased. When his time comes, I wouldn't really be surprised either way.

It's probably too early to tell for guys like David Seanez, Matt Shave and maybe even Albert Frazier. They'll at least merit some discussion once we have a few seasons out of each of them.

Monday, June 16, 2008

AL Power Rankings, Week 8

Pretty much all the drama has been sucked out of the playoff push in the AL. All four divisional leaders are comfortably ahead, and the Wild Card spots are in relatively comfortable shape as well. Now, barring a spectacular collapse (which is not entirely out of the question) it's just a matter of seeding. The race for the #1 overall seed and #1 Wild Card spot are pretty much the only drama left.

1 Madison Massas


Last Week: #2
Record: 98-48 (18-3 this week)
Expected Win %: .597
Playoff Prognosis: In. They will win the division with one more win, and once they do, they will have already clinched at worst the #2 seed, so they will have a bye.
Magic number to clinch #1 seed: 17
Magic number to clinch the division: 1
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 1

2 Oklahoma City Chickens


Last Week: #1
Record: 96-50 (13-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .687
Playoff Prognosis: In. A 13-8 week is nothing to sneeze at, but they lost a whopping 5 games of ground to Madison. Now, they're facing an uphill climb to get back home field.
Magic number to clinch the division: 5
Magic number to clinch first-round bye: 1

3 Mexico City Reds


Last Week: #3
Record: 84-62 (8-13 this week)
Expected Win %: .578
Playoff Prognosis: Uh oh. Awful week left them just two games up on the Bombers for the top Wild Card spot. They're still eight up on Chicago with 16 games left to play, but the remaining schedule is brutal.
2 against Madison
4 against Oklahoma City
4 against Chicago (this could be make-or-break)
3 against NY Bombers
3 against Philadelphia
Only the last series is a layup. There is a realistic chance that they could go something like 5-11 before that, opening the door for Chicago to steal the playoff berth.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 9

4 New York Bombers


Last Week: #4
Record: 82-64 (14-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .554
Playoff Prognosis: The wild card lead is back up to 6 after sitting at 4 a week ago. The next 10 games are against okay or bad teams (Kansas City, San Jose, Philadelphia), so there's a real chance to pretty much lock up their playoff berth before a tough closing stretch against Mexico City and Madison.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 11

5 Kansas City McCoys


Last Week: #5
Record: 80-66 (13-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .583
Playoff Prognosis: Can't catch the #2 seed, but have pretty much locked down the division title and (at worst) the #4 seed. Hold a 9-game lead in the division with 16 to play, and are one game up on Boston for the #3 seed.
Magic number to clinch the division: 8
Magic number to clinch the #3 seed: 16

6 Boston Badasses


Last Week: #6
Record: 79-67 (14-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .510
Playoff Prognosis: Finally kicked it into gear this week after slogging through an uninspired month. The divisional lead jumped from 3 games to 9 this week, turning what looked like a down-to-the-wire race into a blowout. One game back of the #3 seed with 16 to play.
Magic number to clinch the division: 8

7 Chicago Bearcubs

Last Week: #8
Record: 76-70 (14-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .541
Playoff Prognosis: A very good week has them still alive in the playoff race. They're six back of the Bombers and eight back of reeling Mexico City. If they can stay hot and sweep Mexico City, they're absolutely still a factor. There's not a lot of margin for error, but given that they looked almost finished a week ago, they're undoubtedly happy to still be a part of the race.

8 Wichita Sizzlers


Last Week: #12
Record: 71-75 (12-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .520
Playoff Prognosis: Basically done. They're 9 back in the division and 11 back of the wild card with 16 to play.

9 Las Vegas Gamble


Last Week: #11
Record: 71-75 (11-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .497
Playoff Prognosis: Same as Wichita. They're 9 back in the division and 11 back of the wild card with 16 to play.

10 Iowa City Eyesores


Last Week: #10
Record: 70-76 (8-13 this week)
Expected Win %: .416
Playoff Prognosis: The good news is that they don't lose any ground in the rankings. The bad news is... everything else. They're 12 back of the Bombers with 16 to play, meaning that they could go 11-5, and if NY goes 1-15, the Eyesores will miss the playoffs.

11 San Jose Snakes


Last Week: #13
Record: 69-77 (10-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .479
Playoff Prognosis: Virtually eliminated. They're 11 back in the division and 13 down in the wild card with 16 to go.

12 San Juan Senators


Last Week: #7
Record: 68-78 (4-17 this week)
Expected Win %: .479
Playoff Prognosis: Manager Willie Randolph said... No, seriously. What the hell happened? They were 4 back of the wild card last week. Now they're 14 back with 16 to play. Swept by Madison and the Bombers, lost 3 of 4 to San Jose, 2 of 3 to Las Vegas, 2 of 3 to Kansas City, and 2 of 3 to Chicago. Just brutal.

13 Washington DC Old School Warriors



Last Week: #10
Record: 66-80 (6-15 this week)
Expected Win %: .426
Playoff Prognosis: Eliminated. Apparently, they were just one-week wonders. They had the divisional hole down to 5 games last week and shot up 3 spots in the poll. This week they lost 8 games of ground and gave back those three spots in the poll.

14 Durham Bulls


Last Week: #14
Record: 59-87 (7-14 this week)
Expected Win %: .414
Playoff Prognosis: Mathematically eliminated.

15 St. Louis Stampede


Last Week: #15
Record: 56-90 (10-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .382
Playoff Prognosis: Dead, but playing better for the third week in a row.

16 Philadelphia Hellraisers


Last Week: #16
Record: 49-97 (6-17 this week)
Expected Win %: .335
Playoff Prognosis: None. In absolute free-fall right now. They had a better record than St. Louis a couple weeks ago and are now seven games worse. Hello, #1 draft pick.

Monday, June 9, 2008

NL POWER RANKINGS Week 7

  1. Previous Week: 1

    Record: 83-40 (15-5)

    Expected Win%: .708

    News/Notes: at the beginning of the season I made a prediction on wins of 86. The team still can go 3-36 to close out the year. Okay… I was wrong. The Burros make the adjustments and have the pitching to blanket any opponent.

    Magic Number: 16 to clinch division


     


     


     

  2. Previous Week: 2

    Record: 75-48 (10-8)

    Expected Win%: .629

    News/Notes: Jim Walker just broke Brandon Dunston's 6 year old record of stolen bases in a season season (92). Walker currently has 107 with 39 games to go.

    Magic Number: 24 to clinch division


     

  3. Previous Week: 3

    Record: 74-48 (15-4)

    Expected Win%:.596

    News/Notes: The team's 44 saves are more than 6 teams have won at all this year.

    Magic Number: 33 to clinch playoff spot


     


     

  4. Previous Week: 4

    Record: 70-52 (13-6)

    Expected Win%: .551

    News/Notes: At 37 P
    Matthew Pride has had the greatest swing career in the history of the game. He has successfully started, closed, and just plain played the game. Career 3.65 era with over 60 wins and 40 saves.

    Magic Number: 33 to clinch division

        

  5. Previous Week: 5

    Record: 68-55 (14-6)

    Expected Win%: .575

    News/Notes: 3B Luis Amaral's picked the perfect time for a career year. In the last year of his deal, he is batting .340 with over 100 rbi 40 steals, and 20 hrs. Could get a multi-year deal as a result.

    Magic Number: 35 from clinching wild card


     

  6. Previous Week: 6

    Record: 68-54 (11-7)

    Expected Win%: .551

    News/Notes: LF Jesse Walton should be in contention for the rookie of the year not only for his batting statistics (30hr 77rbi .294) but for his solid replacement former Hawk Powell

    Magic Number: 36 from clinching wild card


     


     

  7. Previous Week: 7

    Record: 64-59 (10-10)

    Expected Win%:.540

    News/Notes: After a year on the DL RP Darryl Sexton is coming back to form, before he was injured he was an elite closer, he is now just a top line reliever. With a 3.40 era and a BAA .188

    Magic Number: 40 from clinching wild card.


 

  1. Previous Week: 11

    Record: 60-62 (10-8)

    Expected Win%: .477

    News/Notes: Preston Ward leads all fielders with 30 errors

    Magic Number: 44 from wild card


     

  2. Previous Week: 9

    Record: 59-64 (7-12)

    Expected Win%: .541

    News/Notes: The Labradors are the biggest enigma in baseball. They sport an expected win percentage of .050 higher than their record. They need to start living up to expectations or it's over quickly.

    Magic Number: 45 from wild card


     

  3. Previous Week: 9

    Record: 60-63 (10-10)

    Expected Win%:.470

    News/Notes: SP Graham Green's next win will be his 100th career win.

    Magic Number: 32 from elimination


     

  4. Previous Week: 10

    Record: 58-65 (9-11)

    Expected Win%: .502

    News/Notes: Sp Matt Dougherty must be scratching his head after 23 starts and 9 wins with an ERA of 4.88 he is sent packing to the farm. Good luck next year!

    Magic Number: 30 from elimination


     

  5. Previous Week: 12

    Record: 54-68 (7-11)

    Expected Win%: .404

    News/Notes: 26 year old SP Pedro Barcelo has shown improvement each year he has been with Richmond. Sporting a 3.91 era is not bad on any team.

    Magic Number: 25 from elimination


     

  6. Previous Week: 14

    Record: 53-70 (10-9)

    Expected Win%: .377

    News/Notes: Forget Vic Mullens,
    Trenidad Beltran's resume for the hall of fame: 1st in career hits (1592)11th career hrs (286) 4th in career RBI (989) 4th in career Runs (1032) 5th in career 2B (298) and a career .363 batting average. Check your ballots

    Magic Number: 24 for the wild card elimination


     

  7. Previous Week: 13

    Record: 47-75 (5-14)

    Expected Win%: .389

    News/Notes: SS Jumbo Geuerrero was once suppose to be the elite SS in the league, he has never lived up to that hype, Next season he will be a free agent and won't be getting another 5 year 16m a year deal.

    Magic Number: 18 from elimination


     

  8. Previous Week: 15

    Record: 44-78 (7-11)

    Expected Win%: .374

    News/Notes: Most strike outs for a team is 1247 (Durham bulls S7). The blues might challenge that they are at 1013 with 38 games left. They need to average 6 strikeouts a game to accomplish this feat. Their current pace is more than 8 a game.

    Magic Number: 15 from elimination


     

  9. Previous Week: 16

    Record: 37-85 (3-15)

    Expected Win%: .303

    News/Notes: Even as bad as this team is doing, they still are only 2 games from passing last season's win total. Improvement?

    Magic Number: 8 for elimination from the playoffs

AL Power Rankings, Week 7

One more week is in the books. Mexico City, Kansas City and Washington DC all made a big push this week, Iowa City managed to get things turned around, and the race for the AL East got a little more interesting. It's quite possible that this time next week, one or more teams will have locked up their playoff spots.

1 Oklahoma City Chickens


Last Week: #1
Record: 83-42 (10-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .678
Playoff Prognosis: In. They're 3 up on Madison for the #1 overall seed, but actually lost two games of ground to surging Mexico City this week. They're going to be in the playoffs, the only question now is whether they'll be the #1, #2, or #5 (top wild card) seed.
Magic number to clinch the division: 31
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 19

2 Madison Massas


Last Week: #2
Record: 73-36 (7-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .597
Playoff Prognosis: In. They should officially clinch a playoff berth sometime early next week.
Magic number to clinch the division: 26
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 22

3 Mexico City Reds


Last Week: #3
Record: 76-49 (12-4 this week)
Expected Win %: .584
Playoff Prognosis: Pretty much in after a spectacular week. They're 12 games up on the seventh-seeded team and would basically need to implode to miss the playoffs. Took 20 games off their magic number in just 16 games this week.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 26

4 New York Bombers


Last Week: #4
Record: 68-57 (6-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .538
Playoff Prognosis: A bad week shaved a couple games off of their wildcard lead. It's now down to four games, from six a week ago. They can't afford another week of .375 baseball.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 35

5 Kansas City McCoys


Last Week: #5
Record: 67-58 (11-5 this week)
Expected Win %: .578
Playoff Prognosis: Monumentally better than a week ago. They've gone from a one-game lead to a seven-game lead in the division in the span of a week, and shaved 22 games off their magic number.
Magic number to clinch the division: 32

6 Boston Badasses


Last Week: #6
Record: 65-60 (8-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .496
Playoff Prognosis: Lost one game in the divisional race, just three games up on Iowa now. If it came down to the Wild Card, they would likely be out. Three games back of the Bombers in that category. If they play poorly enough to lose the division, they're probably not going to catch NY. More than likely, they'll either win the division or miss the playoffs entirely.
Magic number to clinch the division: 35

7 San Juan Senators


Last Week: #8
Record: 64-61 (8-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .519
Playoff Prognosis: Continuing to basically tread water. They're four games back of the NY Bombers for the second wild card spot.

8 Chicago Bearcubs

Last Week: #7
Record: 62-63 (6-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .522
Playoff Prognosis: Bad week cost them a lot of ground in the wild card race. They're now six games back of the Bombers for the last playoff spot, tied with Iowa and behind San Juan.

9 Iowa City Eyesores


Last Week: #10
Record: 62-63 (9-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .438
Playoff Prognosis: Still very much alive, only three games back of Boston. This was an exceptional week for them, as they not only stopped the bleeding of a long string of losing streaks, but also unloaded the atrocious contract of "The Albatross" Vinny Hernandez.

10 Washington DC Old School Warriors



Last Week: #13
Record: 60-65 (10-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .457
Playoff Prognosis: Cut divisional deficit from 10 games to 5 this week. Suddenly a very legitimate threat.

11 Las Vegas Gamble


Last Week: #10
Record: 60-65 (5-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .501
Playoff Prognosis: Terrible week set them way back in the divisional race. Now they need to put together a very strong week to get back into contention.

12 Wichita Sizzlers


Last Week: #11
Record: 59-66 (8-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .525
Playoff Prognosis: Fell three games further back of Kansas City this week. Still alive, but rapidly burning through their margin for error.

13 San Jose Snakes


Last Week: #12
Record: 59-66 (8-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .479
Playoff Prognosis: Lost three games of ground in the division to Kansas City this week. They're starting to get into must-win territory where they can't afford to drop 2-of-3 in a series any more.

14 Durham Bulls


Last Week: #14
Record: 52-73 (5-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .417
Playoff Prognosis: They were basically dead a week ago, and after a 5-11 week, they're really done now.

15 St. Louis Stampede


Last Week: #16
Record: 46-79 (10-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .382
Playoff Prognosis: Deader than disco, but the team is looking better of late. Just in time to cost themselves draft position.

16 Philadelphia Hellraisers


Last Week: #15
Record: 43-82 (5-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .328
Playoff Prognosis: Out of the race for months. Have now over-taken St. Louis in the race for the #1 pick.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Hall Of Fame: Pitchers

There have been hints that the Hall of Fame will be coming to HBD sometime in the near future, so I figured this seemed like as good a time as any to take a look at who among Ryan World's current and former players might be among the inductees.

First of all, it's worth noting that while baseball's real-life Hall of Fame opened 70 years after the first professional team took the field (1936), the Ryan World Hall will likely open roughly 10 years after the World was born. Even so, that first HOF class in Cooperstown comprised only six players. Hopefully the HBD hall (whether selected by owners or by the game itself) will be similarly choosy.

I don't think anyone really wants to see someone elected to the Hall solely because they made an All-Star team once and won a batting title, or because they hit a lot of triples during the years that that triples were out of control or because they stole a ton of bases during the wacky stolen base seasons (read: now).

There are also questions about whether the candidates' resume should include "projected" stats. For example, Lenny Sabathia played only two seasons after the start of Ryan World, including a world-best 21 wins in season one. However, his player card lists 11 ML seasons, meaning he played 9 before the world started. Should we attempt to estimate his stats during those years (figure 15 wins per season?) and decide his Hall-worthiness based on those possibly inaccurate measures?

Count me among those who votes no.

Just for fun, let's limit the discussion to guys who are in the top 5 of at least two major career statistical categories or are #1 in any one category. I'm not saying that the guys below are the only ones worth consideration-- it's just a jumping-off point for the discussion.

I'll count these categories as "major" stats. The guys whose names follow are the career top 5.

Wins: Timothy Garcia, Gus Tabaka, Philip Baxter, Louie Suarez, John Overbay
ERA: Timothy Garcia, David Parker, Shawn Cust, Michael Foster, Doug Perry
WHIP: Timothy Garcia, Shawn Cust, David Parker, Lyle Becker, Matthew Pride
Strikeouts: Timothy Garcia, Philip Baxter, Gus Tabaka, Scooter Huskey, Omar Segui
Saves: Chris Sears, Jose Chavez, Hong-Gu Kobayashi, Darryl Sexton, Jose Jose

So according to the criteria (#1 in anything, top-5 in two categories) that leaves these guys in the running.
Timothy Garcia, Shawn Cust, David Parker, Philip Baxter, Chris Sears

And then there's someone who's young, but already starting to look like he'll be a very good candidate in five or six seasons.
Michael Foster

Let's take a look at them case-by-case

The case for induction: #1 all-time in career wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. He's likely to also take over the #1 spot in shutouts as well. He's #2 in opponent batting average. He's #1 in quality starts. He has three Cy Youngs and four All-Star appearances to his credit. By the way, those numbers don't include this season, in which he's on pace to set the single-season record for wins, has earned a spot on the all-Star team and is a virtual lock for the Cy Young. Career post-season ERA of 1.35, career post-season WHIP of 1.32.
The case against him: Hasn't won a World Series title. At 35, and with less than 150 career wins, he's not likely to reach 200.
The verdict: With all due respect to Vic Mullins, this is the biggest no-brainer in the world. Garcia is #1 all-time in every significant statistical category, has the most Cy Youngs of anyone, and is now in the middle of what could be the most dominant single pitching season in Ryan World history. He's the benchmark against which all other starting pitchers will be measured for the foreseeable future.


The case for induction: Absolutely dominant in the first three seasons of the world with a combined 53-13 record. He was never the same after a serious injury in the middle of season 4. One Cy Young and three all-star appearances to his credit. Posted an 0.95 ERA in three postseason starts. Two postseason appearances (both in relief) with a 2.57 ERA during KC's championship in season 6.
The case against him: Only three of his six Ryan World seasons were dominant. He was 13-7 with a 4.32 ERA in seasons 4 and 5, and then was shifted to a relief role in his final season. Was injured and missed the chance to contribute to KC's championship in season 4 because of injury.
The verdict: Cust will be the trial balloon for the Hall of Fame. He put up very good career, but one that was cut short by injury. Even more so, he was hampered by the uncertainty of what he accomplished before the world "went live." He played eight years before season 1. Even if you assigned him only decent numbers (16 wins per year, 3.80 ERA) his career win total moves to 197 and he definitely shifts into HOF consideration. If you assume the standard 5-year wait from the end of a player's career, Cust will be eligible for induction at the start of season 11. If they're counting pre-Ryan stat estimates, he's probably in. If not, he's not even close.


The case for induction: #3 in career WHIP, #2 in career ERA. A major contributor to two Burros' championships (2-0 record in 4 postseason starts in season 1, 4-1 record in five postseason starts in season 5). He's also likely to play a significant role for Oklahoma City, the likely favorite in this year's AL playoffs. Overall, a 9-3 postseason record and 3.51 career postseason ERA are plusses for him. He's got a career winning percentage of .722.
The case against him: Significant lack of stamina has prevented him from ever throwing a complete game and has also cost him wins. His total of 92 wins is substantially lower than most other guys being considered. At 32, he's likely to get shifted to a relief role in the next couple seasons and will probably not reach anything approaching 150 wins. He has likely hit the down-side of his career and was not even considered a Type B free agent after last season.
The verdict: A very, very, very good pitcher whose bullpens may have cost him a shot at the Hall. Unfortunately, as good as he was, a lot of his career numbers just don't stack up to the other candidates. Barring a late-career renaissance as a closer (a la Dennis Eckersley), he's probably a "no."


The case for induction: #3 in wins, #2 in strikeouts. Has only gotten better with age, posting a 107-35 record since the start of season 3. May continue to bolster his case, as he is 14-2 with a 1.09 WHIP on a so-so Chicago team this season at the age of 33. Owns two of the five best single-season win totals (22 in season 7 and 21 in season 3). Owns three of the top four single-season strikeout totals, including an AL record 259 in season 7. He is on pace to break that record again this year. Over his career, he has posted a 6-0 postseason record with an ERA of 3.75. Went 4-0 during Bearcubs' run to Game 7 of the ALCS in season 3. Career WHIP of 1.40 was badly inflated during seasons 1 and 2 (1.89 and 1.94). Has posted WHIPs of 1.20 or less in four of the past six seasons. Three Cy Youngs (with a fourth certainly possible this year) and seven all-star appearances (including this season).
The case against him: Not #1 in any career category (shares #1 spot on season win record). No rings.
The verdict: His career numbers are good, and are even better when you consider he's been working in the AL and in a hitters' park every time he pitches at home. Provided he puts up another couple seasons like this one, there's no reason he won't make it.


The case for induction: Career leader in saves. Career postseason ERA of 2.57. Went 5-for-5 in saves in Pittsburgh's run to Game 7 of the NLCS in season 2. Went 4-for-5 in saves in Pittsburgh's run to the NLCS in season 4.
The case against him: Lacks the one spectacular season when he was clearly the best reliever in the world. He has never posted a season ERA under 2, a WHIP under 1.15 or more than 35 saves. No rings.
The verdict: Probably not. It has been notoriously difficult for closers to crack into Cooperstown, and it will likely prove to be the same in Ryan World. Sears has numbers that are very similar to Jose Chavez, but without the signature season (Chavez saved 42 games with a 2.10 ERA and WHIP of 0.93 in season 4) and without a ring. It will probably be somewhat dicey for Chavez to get in, even with a World Series title (7 postseason saves, 1.93 ERA in season 1) to his name. It would seem that Sears faces an even tougher fight.


The case for induction: Foster is #4 in career ERA right now, but doesn't place in the top 5 on any other major category lists. Why is he here? He's only 28. With 99 career wins to his name, he will certainly be up around 150 (and possibly 170) by the time he reaches his mid-30s, and he has a decent shot at 200 if he can stay healthy. He has been remarkably consistent since joining San Diego, posting ERAs between 2.98 and 3.66 in each of five seasons. Playing on a consistently good team in a pitchers' park, that's not likely to change. Career postseason record of 4-2 with an ERA of 3.57.
The case against him: The career totals obviously aren't what they need to be right now. He needs to continue throwing well deep into his mid-30s to merit serious consideration. No ring.
The verdict: Definitely not yet, but if he can get to 200 wins with a career ERA in the 3s and maybe win a ring, he's got a good shot.


The case for induction: He has put up solid numbers while throwing half of his games in an absolute pitchers' nightmare. The 109-53 record is solid, and he has had some truly excellent seasons. Going 20-3 with a 3.92 ERA (season 6) is pretty good no matter where you're pitching, but doing it with half your games in Coors Field is really remarkable. He was 18-4 with an ERA of 3.70 in season 3 as well. He made three all-star teams and won a World Series ring in season 3 (4 starts, 2-0 record, 5.25 ERA)
The case against him: Career postseason ERA of 6.05. Multiple bad seasons sprinkled throughout his career. Season 1: 12-10, 5.84 ERA. Season 4: 11-10, 6.82 ERA. Season 8: 5-10, 7.10 ERA. May have seen the last of his dominant years (Overall rating slid 8 points in the last two seasons), and is signed for three more seasons after this one. His numbers could get ugly and stay that way, leading to a "Dale Murphy effect."
The verdict: A very good career, especially considering the circumstances, but almost certainly not a Hall of Fame career. It would have been interesting to see what kind of numbers he could have posted in a more neutral park.

Have someone you think ought to be considered? Let me know by leaving a comment here or sending a trade chat. I'll put together an update in the future.