Tuesday, June 3, 2008

AL Power Rankings, Week 6

We passed the two-thirds mark of the season as well as the trading deadline. Now, we're entering the home stretch of the season with about 50 games to go. A whopping 14 of the 16 teams in the AL are still within 10 games of a playoff spot, meaning they have at least a faint glimmer of hope to reach the postseason.

1 Oklahoma City Chickens


Last Week: #2
Record: 73-36 (14-4 this week)
Expected Win %: .681
Playoff Prognosis: In. They're 9 up in their division with 53 to play, and are 17 up on the #7 team in the league (the first one to miss the playoffs).
Magic number to clinch the division: 45
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 37

2 Madison Massas


Last Week: #1
Record: 73-36 (11-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .598
Playoff Prognosis: Like the Chickens, they're in. They're 11 games up in the division and 17 up on the #7 team. It would take more than just a collapse to miss the playoffs at this point. We're talking about a meteor strike on their home stadium.
Magic number to clinch the division: 43
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 37

3 Mexico City Reds


Last Week: #3
Record: 64-45 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .569
Playoff Prognosis: On solid ground right now. They're unlucky to be stuck in the same division as Oklahoma City. They would be 7 games up in the division if they played in the AL East and 8 games up if they played in the AL West. But they don't. They are, however, a very respectable 8 games up on the #7 seed.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 46

4 New York Bombers


Last Week: #4
Record: 62-47 (7-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .560
Playoff Prognosis: Pretty much the same as Mexico City. Their record is very good, but they're stuck behind a dominant Madison team in the AL East. They're still 6 games up on the competition for the last Wild Card spot, but the field is pretty crowded back there. Only one of those teams needs to get hot to make things uncomfortable in the Bronx.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 48

5 Kansas City McCoys


Last Week: #7
Record: 56-53 (11-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .558
Playoff Prognosis: Not bad. They're just one game ahead of the Gamble in the West, and only five games ahead of the last-place teams. However, there's not really a great team in that division. KC's recent hot streak has propelled them into first after a dreadful start (they were #14 in the first power rankings and #10 in the second). The margin is slim, but they have to be considered the favorites to sneak into the playoffs out of the AL West.
Magic number to clinch the division: 53

6 Boston Badasses


Last Week: #9
Record: 57-52 (11-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .509
Playoff Prognosis: Very solid. They're only four games up, but the second-place team in the division (Iowa) has been in free-fall for the last half of the season and the third-place team just traded away its closer at the deadline. This might be Ryan World's worst overall division- only Boston has an expected record over .500, and they're only at .509. They're 10th in the league in runs allowed.
Magic number to clinch the division: 50

7 Chicago Bearcubs

Last Week: #8
Record: 56-53 (10-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .544
Playoff Prognosis: At 17 games back, they're certainly not going to win the division, but they're only six games back of their divisional mates (the Bombers) in the Wild Card. The pitching has been really bad this year (11th in the AL in runs allowed), but with their bats, you never know...

8 San Juan Senators


Last Week: #5
Record: 56-53 (7-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .523
Playoff Prognosis: A recent slump cost them some real estate in the standings and the power rankings following the all-star break. They're certainly not hopelessly out of things, but at 17 games back in the division and in a big pack of teams chasing the wild card, they probably can't afford another 7-11 week.

9 Las Vegas Gamble


Last Week: #10
Record: 55-54 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .511
Playoff Prognosis: Very fortunate to be in the AL West. If they were in the North or South, they'd be hopelessly behind. Instead, they sit one game back of Kansas City. The Pythagorean record suggests they may continue to sputter along at about .500. Of course, that might actually be enough to win their division.

10 Iowa City Eyesores


Last Week: #6
Record: 53-56 (6-12 this week)
Expected Win %: .429
Playoff Prognosis: It's hard to believe, but this team was 32-18 and #3 in the Power Rankings just three weeks ago. Since then... yikes. A 21-38 has sent them plummeting down the standings. Barring a borderline miracle of a turnaround, they'll be on the outside looking in this postseason.

11 Wichita Sizzlers


Last Week: #11
Record: 51-58 (8-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .532
Playoff Prognosis: Only five games out in the division, so still very much alive. This is a team that seems like it should be playing better than it is. They won 102 games a year ago and seemed destined for another strong season this year. They clearly haven't gotten what they expected out of guys like Trenidad Durham this year. He was 9-2 with a 4.00 ERA a year ago, but just 9-11 with an ERA of 5.45 this season. Kelvim Sellers has seen a very similar falloff.

12 San Jose Snakes


Last Week: #12
Record: 51-58 (8-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .466
Playoff Prognosis: They're 5 back in the West, just like Wichita. San Jose was actually #2 in the first power poll of the season, but after an 8-2 start, they've put together only one win streak of more than three games.

13 Washington DC Old School Warriors



Last Week: #13
Record: 50-59 (10-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .442
Playoff Prognosis: Barely breathing. They're 7 back of Boston in the East, but just dealt away their closer and are seemingly focusing on the future.

14 Durham Bulls



Last Week: #14
Record: 47-62 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .444
Playoff Prognosis: In a very similar boat to Washington DC. They're 10 back in the division and are for all intents and purposes out of the race. Trading closer Jose Jose to Atlanta was a pretty clear waving of the white flag.

15 Philadelphia Hellraisers


Last Week: #15
Record: 38-71 (5-13 this week)
Expected Win %: .327
Playoff Prognosis: About the same as they've been since the first week of the season. They were #15 in that first power poll and haven't moved much since. At least they're consistent.

16 St. Louis Stampede


Last Week: #16
Record: 36-73 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .353
Playoff Prognosis: Flat-lined long ago. Only two games up (well... down) on Philadelphia for the worst record in the AL. This isn't the time to pull it together a put up a 9-9 week.

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