Friday, May 30, 2008

Futures game season 1

I have often wondered, how accurate is the futures game in predicting Major leaguers? With this question I looked to the Season 1 futures and this is what I have found.


 

56 players named to the futures game of which:

10 retired before ever seeing ML action

1 retired after seeing ML action

3 are still waiting to break into the Majors

6 have had their taste of Ml action and are now back in the Minors

2 have ML service time and are now Free Agents.

34 are active in the Majors

Average ML time is 3.5 seasons

Futures have combined for 17 all star appearances, 2 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, a fireman of the year award, 1 MVP, and 1 ROY.


 

Top 4 futures stars are:

Ken Gibbs- 7 year vet- 4 time all-star ROY award winner, 4 time silver slugger, and AL MVP.

Dude Reed- 8 year vet- 2 time all-star 1 time silver slugger.

Jose Chavez- 8 year vet- 4 time all-star- 1 time winner of the Fireman of the year.

Harry Vosberg- 6 year vet 2 time all-star 1 time silver slugger.


 

Most look to make the majors and even have semi productive careers, It seem if a player make the futures game, he is either on the fast track to success or is already quite developed.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

NL WEST DRAFT REVIEW

Colorado Springs Organizational Filler

Draft needs CF,3B,LF

1

22

Walt Harris

3B

18

$2,040K

Fair swinging slugger, he is slow and plotting on the bases, but sure and steady in the field and at the plate. Solid pick at 22

1

24

Joe Phillips

P

22

$1,850K

Developed starter who has 3 plus pitches to go with above average control and splits. He could be ready as early as next season

1

33

Fred Zimmerman

P

18

$1,000K

Solid pitching prospect he is below average against the lefties but solid with 2 plus pitches everywhere else.

1

38

Dennys Leonard

SS

18

$800K

Defenisve whiz kid way good contact and speed. He will steal 20+ a season and offer a gold glove caliber glove at short.

1

41

York Bradford

RP

18

$680K

Elite closer 2 dominant pitches and excellent splits match well with his control and durability. He is a flyball type pitcher who will strike out many batters. Excellent late 1st rounder.

2

65

Antonio Hollins

3B

21

$550K

Powerful bat with above average splits and eye. He is defensively suited for the outfield.

3

97

Edwin Hernandez

3B

18

$425K

Another strong one. His eye and splits are average. His highlights will be him banging the ball out of the park.

4

129

Jay Carter

P

18

$350K

3 above average pitches and good splits weigh against poor control for this reliever. He might be usable if you can take the walks.

5

161

Roy Blank

C

18

---

NO INFO wants 2.5M probably unsignable

Summary: With 5 1st rounders this team has only got itself better, They still did not address their need at CF, but did get a great Corner outfielder and a top 3B. This team was already strong and just got a lot better.

Grade: A-



San Diego Surf

Draft Needs: CF, RF,SP

1

26

John Young

CF

18

$1,660K

Top flight 2 bagger. He has both the contact and power to succedd, He also runs very well and should field his position above average. He is average against right handed pitching.

2

69

Fred Dixon

SS

20

$550K

Speedy role player, he is below average at short, but can field almost anywhere. He does not have a great bat and will struggle against righties. In summary if you need a pinch runner, or a situational leftie with little power Dixon is your man.

3

101

Darryl Kolb

P

20

$425K

Career Minor leaguer with poor splits and mediocre pitch selction

4

133

Eddie Embree

P

18

$350K

See above

5

165

Tanyon Ankiel

P

19

$250K

I think we have found a pattern here.

Summary: 1 sure MLer and a situation bat is not the best draft class. They brought in no pitching talent. They picked up Young as a CF, but his fit is better at 2B. Everything else was just left alone.

Grade: C-



Cheyenne Marmots
Draft needs: RP, CF, SP


1

30

Tony Hartzell

CF

18

$1,290K

Solid defensive CF, He has good contact and average power, but should put the ball in play a lot with his abilities. He is a slower, but better fielding version of LF Jumbo Guerrero. Solid 1st round pick

1

39

Jason Chase

P

20

$760K

2 good pitches, but average control and splits. He might make the bigs, but he will not be effective for long.

2

73

Tony Dong

2B

18

---

Base stealing 2nd sacker, he has little power and big dreams of playing college baseball. Looks like he is going to get to live the dream.

3

105

Gerald Suzuki

SS

18

$350K

Defensive minded Shortstop. He is not going to offer much at the plate, but he does have good wheels and might make up for his hitting whoas with his glove and legs.

4

137

Jumbo Roberts

RP

18

$350K

Below average control, mask a hard throwing righty, he has 2 plus pitches and excellent stamina and durability for a reliever. He just might walk in the winning run a couple times.

5

169

Robert Weiss

LF

20

$250K

Average fielder and hitter, he has a great eye for the ball, but is average in almost every other way. He might sneak onto an opening day roster someday and even play for a few seasons.

Summary: Solid picks while covering their need at CF and RP. They made no huge reaches and only had 1 signing issue. They might have 5 ML'ers from this class.

Grade: B



Colorado MILE HIGH CLUB

Draft needs: SS, CF, C,SP

1

25

Albert Montanez

LF

18

---

NO INFO

2

68

Sammy Everett

SS

18

$550K

Defensively not a good shortstop. He is a slightly above average hitter with plus speed. He will be injury prone in his career. He is the classic 4A player.

3

100

Jonathan Cogan

SS

19

$425K

Good defensive 2B or outfielder. He is an average hitter with good speed and base running. He might be a good pinch runner some day.

4

132

Derrek Bailes

P

21

$350K

Career minor leaguer with below average control and splits. He does not have any dominant pitches.

5

164

Denny Munoz

LF

18

$250K

Left handed hitting r 1B, overall he is an average hitter with average fielding ability. He can't hit righties very well.

Summary: Tried to get a SS that was worth a damn, and struck out twice. This class is full of throw aways and junk picks. Without See Montanez It is hard to grade what it could be, but for now it is a disappointment in Colorado.

Grade: D


Wednesday, May 28, 2008

AL Power Rankings, All-Star Break

The season is a little more than halfway done, and we finally have a new #1 in the American League. Madison finally passed Oklahoma City in overall record- despite a vastly inferior Pythagorean record- and has assumed the top spot in the rankings.

The league is also starting to show its balance-- 9 teams played within a game of .500 this week. It's also getting a little unpredictable. Only two teams managed more than 13 wins during that span, and they're ranked #1 and #13 this week.

1 Madison Massas


Last Week: #2
Record: 62-29 (16-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .593
Notes: Casey Kaline has 51 steals on the year and is on pace for 91 for the season. That would easily break the team record of 68, held by Ozzie Watson. Kaline has already passed Watson for the team's career lead with 330 and counting, and recently overtook Charlie Magruder to become the all-time career stolen base leader for Ryan World.

2 Oklahoma City Chickens


Last Week: #1
Record: 59-32 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .671
Notes: Donnie DuBose has 37 HR this season, putting him on pace for 65. That would easily give him the team's single-season record. Theodore Zoltan holds it right now with 53.

3 Mexico City Reds


Last Week: #4
Record: 55-36 (13-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .590
Notes: For the second straight week, they have a record identical to the NY Bombers. This week, they're .007 ahead in Pythagorean percentage, so they get the nod for the #3 spot. Stubby Cyr has 8 "plus" plays this year. That's already a team single-season record for 2B. Edwin Gibson holds the all-time single-season record for a 2B with 10. Cyr's great season has also moved him past Ken Gibbs for first place on the Ryan World career record list as well.

4 New York Bombers


Last Week: #3
Record: 55-36 (13-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .583
Notes: Luis Belliard owns the top four OBP seasons in Bombers' history. That may be about to change. Bill Darwin would top all of those if he continues his current OBP pace (.440).

5 San Juan Senators


Last Week: #6
Record: 49-42 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .533
Notes: Ismael Ortiz has nine complete games. He owns the team record with 12 and holds second place as well with 11. He's on pace to break the Ryan World record of 13, currently held by Bob Hatteberg.

6 Iowa City Eyesores


Last Week: #5
Record: 47-44 (9-13 this week)
Expected Win %: .439
Notes: Have slid to 15-26 record over the last 41 games. Despite that quarter-season slump and getting out-scored by more than 50 runs this year, they're still in first place. Bart Hitchcock's 84 strikeouts put him on pace to whiff 150 times this season. That would break the team record of Shannon Booker (138). The Ryan World record is 174 by Pedro Ortiz.

7 Kansas City McCoys



Last Week: #7
Record: 45-46 (10-12 this week)
Expected Win %: .553
Notes: David Seanez is on pace to put up 158 RBI this season. That's pretty remarkable, but still almost 30 shy of the team record of 184, held by Gill Davenport.

8 Chicago Bearcubs

Last Week: #9
Record: 46-45 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .538
Notes: Matt Shave has 49 HR through 91 games, putting him on pace for 87 over the season. That would beat Freddie Reynolds' team (and Ryan World) record of 84.

9 Boston Badasses


Last Week: #8
Record: 46-45 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .503
Notes: Gabe Forster is on pace for 71 appearances this year. That would be good for the second-most games for a pitcher in team history. Rex Fryman pitched in 79 games in season 1.

10 Las Vegas Gamble


Last Week: #10
Record: 46-45 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .506
Notes: Louis Medina posted 10 complete games in season 6. No Las Vegas pitcher has thrown a complete game this season.

11 Wichita Sizzlers


Last Week: #11
Record: 43-48 (11-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .547
Notes: Vicente Arias has stolen 62 bases so far this season. He's on pace for 110 this year, which would easily set not only a team record but a Ryan World record as well. 89 is the best any Shocker has ever managed (Arias did that in season 7) and 92 is the world record (Brandon Dunston did it in season 2). Unfortunately for Arias, he's only fifth in the league in steals right now. Nashville's Sam Miller has already broken that single-season record despite a recent injury.

12 San Jose Snakes


Last Week: #12
Record: 43-48 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .472
Notes: Ed Karl and Vladimir Lopez both have six wins this season and are on pace to tie for the team lead with 12. That's nothing new-- no pitcher with this franchise has won more than 12 games in a year since season 5.

13 Washington DC Old School Warriors



Last Week: #15
Record: 40-51 (14-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .434
Notes: Trevor Jackson has 41 SB through 91 team games. That's more than seven AL teams and puts him on pace for 73 this year. However, it would only be good for fourth on the team single-season record list. Apparently there are a lot of experienced thieves in Washington, DC. Who would have guessed?

14 Durham Bulls



Last Week: #13
Record: 38-53 (10-12 this week)
Expected Win %: .437
Notes: Richie Cormier has 37 HR in just 82 games (the team has played 91). That puts him on pace for 66 this year which would break the team record of 63 (held by Pedro Ortiz).

15 Philadelphia Hellraisers


Last Week: #14
Record: 33-58 (7-15 this week)
Expected Win %: .338
Notes: Kevin Burke has a decent shot to break his own franchise record for saves in a season. He has 20 at the break. He set the team record with 38 last season and also holds third place on the list with 30 the year before.

16 St. Louis Stampede


Last Week: #16
Record: 27-64 (6-16 this week)
Expected Win %: .322
Notes: Two pitchers on the staff are threatening the franchise record for losses in a season (21). Yannick Fonville and Pablo Javier have 10 each at the all-star break, and long reliever Ron Roberts has a shot as well, with 9 losses to his credit.

Monday, May 26, 2008

NL Week 5 power rankings

1. New York Burros

Last Week: 1
Record: 56-30 (9-11)
Expected Win %: .694
Interesting, But Meaningless: Only 1 team has sweep the Burros the Boston Badasses.
Yikes: Tim Garcia suffered his first 3 losses this week making him 15-3 on the season.. Oh No!

2. Nashville Park Tanners-


Last Week: 2

Record: 54-32 (11-8)
Expected Win %: .637
Interesting, But Meaningless: Juan Palme iro Failed miserable at his shot at closer 17/25 in save situations and a 6.75. at 10M a year he is being given a shot to earn his money in the rotation.
Yikes: SP Howard Handworth is out 16 days, before his injury he was 9-2 with a 3.65 era and 114 SO


3. Cheyenne Marmots-


Last Week: 3
Record: 47-39 (9-11)
Expected Win %: .581
Interesting, But Meaningless: Adrian Cassidy has been intentionally walked 20 times this season
Yikes: Batters are batting .187 against Kiki Soto

4. San Diego Surf -

Last Week: 6
Record: 49-37 (14-6)
Expected Win %: .588
Interesting, But Meaningless: they have won 7 straight series
Yikes: RP Jose James has allowed 2 of 20 Inherited runners to score



5. Montreal Money Shots-

Last Week: 4
Record: 46-40 (10-9)

Expected Win %: .555
Interesting, But Meaningless: 1B Cy Robinson’s 32 homeruns aren’t enough to be considered as an all-star
Yikes: team has 39 hit batsmen and 14 wild pitches



6. Colorado Springs Organizational Filler-


Last Week: 5

Record: 47-39 (10-10)

Expected Win %: .531

Interesting, But Meaningless: 17-8 in 1 run games

Yikes: in a time of increased stolen bases the Fillers have stolen 21 bases and have been caught 18 times

7. Cincinnati Bowties -

Last Week: 8

Record: 49-37 (12-7)
Expected Win %: .527
Interesting, But Meaningless: SP Clarence Patrick broke the Burros hold on Pitcher of the week
Yikes: The Cincinati Bowties have yet to issue an intentional walk, you earn your base here.



8. Little Rock Labradors -


Last Week: 11
Record: 42-44 (13-6)
Expected Win %: .549
Interesting, But Meaningless: have only grounded into a league low 38 double plays on the season. Colorado has the most with 114.
Yikes: 67 stolen bases and a .300 batting average, but Jim Walker is staying home All-star weekend


9. Florida Marlins -

Last Week: 7

Record: 42-44 (7-12)

Expected Win %: .506

Interesting, But Meaningless: SS Preston Ward has 10 infield hits
Yikes: He also has 22 errors and 6 negative plays


10. Hartford T Ball-


Last Week: 9
Record: 43-43 (9-11)

Expected Win %: .497
Interesting, But Meaningless: top 2 OBP players reside here. Harry Vosberg with a .451 and Tony Kelly .445.
Yikes: NO DRAFT PICKS SIGNED


11. Atlanta Braves-


Last Week: 10
Record: 41-45 (10-10)
Expected Win %: .500
Interesting, But Meaningless: Leadoff man Jose Nunez leads the league with 64 walks 10 more than the next closest

Yikes: 7 players have appeared in every game this season

12. Richmond Revolution-


Last Week: 14
Record: 37-49 (9-10)Expected Win %: .360
Interesting, But Meaningless: CL Walter Gentry is 18-21 in save opportunities
Yikes: not one player has played in every game this season

13. Seattle Warbirds




Last Week: 12
Record: 33-53 (6-13)
Expected Win %: .405
Interesting, But Meaningless: a .991 fielding percentage makes them the best in the NL

Yikes: 2B Damian Ramirez is working on his 3rd year underperforming for 7.2M




14. Milwaukee Blues -



Last Week: 13
Record: 34-54 (7-12)

Expected Win %: .385
Interesting, But Meaningless: the Marvin Griffey Experiment ends, he has now been designated for assignment after batting .197 with 13 errors and 1 negative play at SS

Yikes: OF Jesus Santiago is striking out at a record pace. He has 119 already on pace for just under 200

15. Colorado MILE HIGH CLUB -


Last Week: 15
Record: 33-53 (8-12)

Expected Win %: .328
Interesting, But Meaningless: welcome to 1500 hits Vic Mullens! 5/20 am

Yikes: 3 players have had at least 5 save opportunities.




16. Cleveland Wild Dogs-

Last Week: 16
Record: 29-57 (10-10)
Expected Win %: .337
Interesting, But Meaningless:RF Roosevelt Ensberg has 6 more strikeouts (76) than hits (70)

Yikes: still have signed no draft picks

Saturday, May 24, 2008

NL South Draft Review

Nashville Park Tanners
Draft needs: F, SP, and RP

 

1 

13 

Butch Hamilton

RP

21 

$2,880K 

Excellent reliever or closer. He has amazing durability and stamina for a reliever; he has 3 plus pitches with strikeout velocity.

 

4 

120 

Pete Diggins

SS 

21 

--- 

NO INFO

 

5 

152 

Joe Lincoln

RF 

21 

$250K 

Solid fielder for RF he has power potential that is hard t match. He also sports above average eye and splits. He will power in a good number of runs

Summary: Covered their needs with only 3 picks. Hamilton will be a solid reliever and Lincoln is what the team might need in LF. Solid picks for a top ranked team. This is all without seeing Diggins

Grade: A-


 

Florida Marlins

Need from the Draft: 3B, BEST AVAILABLE
 

1 

19 

Chuck Blasingame

3B 

22 

$2,320K 

Power slugger who struggles against righties . He is defensively better suited in left field than at 3B. Might have been a reach at the 19th pick

 

2 

62 

Turner Hemingway

3B 

18 

$840K 

Similar to hemingway, he is a 3b with a lot of power and an above average eye. He will struggle against lefies at the plate

 

3 

94 

James Adcock

P 

21 

$425K 

2 above average pitches and good stamina, but below average splits and bad control will be a roadblock to him making the majors anytime soon.

 

4 

126 

Miguel Sojo

P 

20 

$350K 

Career minor leaguer with 3 good pitches but no control and bad splits. Could make it to AAA some day.

 

5 

158 

Don Hayes

P 

19 

$250K 

More chance to make it to AAA than Sojo, but that's about as far is he goes.

Summary: They went after their 3B of the future and reached a bit to get their man. They did not need much to improve their farm, but they also did not get much.

Grade: C+

Little Rock Labradors

Draft needs: CF, SP, RP
 

1 

15 

Hugh Richardson

P 

19 

$2,500K

5 good pitches excellent control and good stamina highlight this starter. He should have no issue against lefties, but right handers might give him issue. His good arsenal should help him overcome .

 

2 

58 

Bill Denny

RP

20 

$500K 

Situational right handed specialist would be the best bet with Denny. He has all the makings of a star except he has below average numbers against lefties. But his 2 good pitches and great control might allow him to get out an occasional leftie.

 

3 

90 

Steve Daniels

P 

20 

$400K 

Spot starter or long reliever best suits Daniels; he has average splits and great control, his call 3 very average pitches to work with though.

 

4 

122

Felix Patrick

RP

22 

$350K 

Another reliever like Denny, he will struggle against lefties when given the chance but his skills dictate he should have good success against righties with his 2 pitches.

 

5

154 

Dickie Hayes

RF 

20 

$250K 

Mediocre RF with average hitting and running skills. He might see play time if there is a plane crash and the starters are maimed.

           
           

Summary: Attacked their pitching needs with solid picks in the first rounds. They have a number of solid ML'ers here. They did not add much in the field though and their CF ranks are pretty barren

Grade: B


 

Richmond Revolution
Draft needs: C, CF, SP

 

1 

4 

Mike Fitzgerald

P 

21 

$3,720K

Future Ace. He has the combination of control, splits and 4 pitches that everyone is looking for. His high velocity will allow him to strike many a batter in his long career. He is very developed as well.

 

2 

47 

Anthony Weaver

P 

21 

--- 

Below Average Control, but 4 good pitches make him interesting. He fell to the 2nd round because of his signing issues. He still isn't signed and is considering football.

 

3 

79 

Jerrod Mussina

P 

22 

$425K 

Poor control and below average pitch selection will dictate average success in the major league. He needs to develop a go to pitch or better control to succeed.

 

4 

111 

Edgar Molina

RP

18 

$350K 

A reliever with low durability and control is not a good reliever. Here we have a 2 pitch reliever with low stamina and durability. He is not going to see many innings.

 

5 

143 

Homer Giles

P 

19 

$250K 

With good control and 3 above average pitches, He has a good chance to make the rotation or Bullpen. He has very mediocre splits.

Summary: Brought in a lot of warm bodies at pitching. He has well a number of good players, who will fill in very well in the future. Richmond is a team on the rebound, but they still have huge holes at CF and Catcher.

Grade: C