AL Power Rankings, Week 6

We passed the two-thirds mark of the season as well as the trading deadline. Now, we're entering the home stretch of the season with about 50 games to go. A whopping 14 of the 16 teams in the AL are still within 10 games of a playoff spot, meaning they have at least a faint glimmer of hope to reach the postseason.

1 Oklahoma City Chickens


Last Week: #2
Record: 73-36 (14-4 this week)
Expected Win %: .681
Playoff Prognosis: In. They're 9 up in their division with 53 to play, and are 17 up on the #7 team in the league (the first one to miss the playoffs).
Magic number to clinch the division: 45
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 37

2 Madison Massas


Last Week: #1
Record: 73-36 (11-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .598
Playoff Prognosis: Like the Chickens, they're in. They're 11 games up in the division and 17 up on the #7 team. It would take more than just a collapse to miss the playoffs at this point. We're talking about a meteor strike on their home stadium.
Magic number to clinch the division: 43
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 37

3 Mexico City Reds


Last Week: #3
Record: 64-45 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .569
Playoff Prognosis: On solid ground right now. They're unlucky to be stuck in the same division as Oklahoma City. They would be 7 games up in the division if they played in the AL East and 8 games up if they played in the AL West. But they don't. They are, however, a very respectable 8 games up on the #7 seed.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 46

4 New York Bombers


Last Week: #4
Record: 62-47 (7-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .560
Playoff Prognosis: Pretty much the same as Mexico City. Their record is very good, but they're stuck behind a dominant Madison team in the AL East. They're still 6 games up on the competition for the last Wild Card spot, but the field is pretty crowded back there. Only one of those teams needs to get hot to make things uncomfortable in the Bronx.
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 48

5 Kansas City McCoys


Last Week: #7
Record: 56-53 (11-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .558
Playoff Prognosis: Not bad. They're just one game ahead of the Gamble in the West, and only five games ahead of the last-place teams. However, there's not really a great team in that division. KC's recent hot streak has propelled them into first after a dreadful start (they were #14 in the first power rankings and #10 in the second). The margin is slim, but they have to be considered the favorites to sneak into the playoffs out of the AL West.
Magic number to clinch the division: 53

6 Boston Badasses


Last Week: #9
Record: 57-52 (11-7 this week)
Expected Win %: .509
Playoff Prognosis: Very solid. They're only four games up, but the second-place team in the division (Iowa) has been in free-fall for the last half of the season and the third-place team just traded away its closer at the deadline. This might be Ryan World's worst overall division- only Boston has an expected record over .500, and they're only at .509. They're 10th in the league in runs allowed.
Magic number to clinch the division: 50

7 Chicago Bearcubs

Last Week: #8
Record: 56-53 (10-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .544
Playoff Prognosis: At 17 games back, they're certainly not going to win the division, but they're only six games back of their divisional mates (the Bombers) in the Wild Card. The pitching has been really bad this year (11th in the AL in runs allowed), but with their bats, you never know...

8 San Juan Senators


Last Week: #5
Record: 56-53 (7-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .523
Playoff Prognosis: A recent slump cost them some real estate in the standings and the power rankings following the all-star break. They're certainly not hopelessly out of things, but at 17 games back in the division and in a big pack of teams chasing the wild card, they probably can't afford another 7-11 week.

9 Las Vegas Gamble


Last Week: #10
Record: 55-54 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .511
Playoff Prognosis: Very fortunate to be in the AL West. If they were in the North or South, they'd be hopelessly behind. Instead, they sit one game back of Kansas City. The Pythagorean record suggests they may continue to sputter along at about .500. Of course, that might actually be enough to win their division.

10 Iowa City Eyesores


Last Week: #6
Record: 53-56 (6-12 this week)
Expected Win %: .429
Playoff Prognosis: It's hard to believe, but this team was 32-18 and #3 in the Power Rankings just three weeks ago. Since then... yikes. A 21-38 has sent them plummeting down the standings. Barring a borderline miracle of a turnaround, they'll be on the outside looking in this postseason.

11 Wichita Sizzlers


Last Week: #11
Record: 51-58 (8-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .532
Playoff Prognosis: Only five games out in the division, so still very much alive. This is a team that seems like it should be playing better than it is. They won 102 games a year ago and seemed destined for another strong season this year. They clearly haven't gotten what they expected out of guys like Trenidad Durham this year. He was 9-2 with a 4.00 ERA a year ago, but just 9-11 with an ERA of 5.45 this season. Kelvim Sellers has seen a very similar falloff.

12 San Jose Snakes


Last Week: #12
Record: 51-58 (8-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .466
Playoff Prognosis: They're 5 back in the West, just like Wichita. San Jose was actually #2 in the first power poll of the season, but after an 8-2 start, they've put together only one win streak of more than three games.

13 Washington DC Old School Warriors


Last Week: #13
Record: 50-59 (10-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .442
Playoff Prognosis: Barely breathing. They're 7 back of Boston in the East, but just dealt away their closer and are seemingly focusing on the future.

14 Durham Bulls


Last Week: #14
Record: 47-62 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .444
Playoff Prognosis: In a very similar boat to Washington DC. They're 10 back in the division and are for all intents and purposes out of the race. Trading closer Jose Jose to Atlanta was a pretty clear waving of the white flag.

15 Philadelphia Hellraisers


Last Week: #15
Record: 38-71 (5-13 this week)
Expected Win %: .327
Playoff Prognosis: About the same as they've been since the first week of the season. They were #15 in that first power poll and haven't moved much since. At least they're consistent.

16 St. Louis Stampede


Last Week: #16
Record: 36-73 (9-9 this week)
Expected Win %: .353
Playoff Prognosis: Flat-lined long ago. Only two games up (well... down) on Philadelphia for the worst record in the AL. This isn't the time to pull it together a put up a 9-9 week.

NL Power Ranking Week 6

1. New York Burros

Last Week: 1
Record: 68-35 (12-5)
Expected Win %: .696
Skinny: SP Timothy Garcia (NY2) leads the league in Wins and Strikeouts, OBA, Whip, and ERA. Pure domination!

2. Nashville Park Tanners-

Last Week: 2
Record: 65-39 (11-7)
Expected Win %: .633
The Skinny: In little over 1 season SS Sam Miller is already in the top 50 in stolen bases all-time. As a team they lead the league with 206 stolen bases


3. San Diego Surf -

Last Week: 4
Record: 59-44 (10-7)
Expected Win %: .592
The Skinny: SP Deion Dunn’s sophomore domination has been put on hold for a back injury. He was 13-2 with a 3.13 Era before his injury and in contention for a Cy Young.

4. Cincinnati Bowties -

Last Week: 6

Record: 57-46 (10-7)

Expected Win %: .547

The Skinny: They have blown 20 saves already this season. Not a good way to end the game and one of the stumbling blocks holding them back.


5. Cheyenne Marmots-

Last Week: 3

Record: 54-49 (7-10)
Expected Win %: .560
The Skinny: Adrian Cassidy can confirm his claim to be the most feared bitter in major league baseball. He has been intentional walked 21 times.


6. Colorado Springs Organizational Filler-


Last Week: 6
Record: 57-46 (10-7)
Expected Win %: .547
The Skinny: They have blown 20 saves already this season. Not a good way to end the game and one of the stumbling blocks holding them back.


7. Montreal Money Shots-

Last Week: 5
Record: 54-49 (8-9)
Expected Win %: .547
The Skinny: CF Derrek Forbes is outstanding in CF with 10+ plays. He also lights up the base path with 50 stolen bases. P Del James’s rookie season has been cut short with a sore rotator cuff injury, his 2nd visit to the DL this season.

8. Little Rock Labradors -


Last Week: 8
Record: 52-52 (10-8)
Expected Win %: .541
The Skinny: 2B Jung Miyakazi’s 18 game hitting streaks is the longest current streak in the league

9. Hartford T Ball-

Last Week: 10
Record: 50-53 (7-10)
Expected Win %: .494
The Skinny: starting lineup includes 6 players with fatigue

10. Atlanta Braves-

Last Week: 11
Record: 49-54 (8-9)
Expected Win %: .508
THE SKINNY: Jose Nunez’s 84 walks lead the league by 20

11. Florida Marlins -

Last Week: 9

Record: 50-54 (8-10)

Expected Win %: .476

The Skinny: SS Preston Ward’s 13 infield hits lead the league. His 26 errors also lead the league. SP Francis Charlton is having a disastrous season. He is working on his second stint on the DL. His 62 health is higher than you would expect.

12. Richmond Revolution-


Last Week: 12

Record: 47-57 (10-8)

Expected Win %: .404

The Skinny: with 4 rule 5 pitchers in the majors. This team is giving the young guys the chance to break the majors. They are holding their own so far. Am has had good success at home where they have a winning record (29-26), road has been a lot less successful.

13. Seattle Warbirds

Last Week: 13
Record: 42-61 (9-8)
Expected Win %: .405
The Skinny: currently bottom of the league in RBIs for a team

15. Colorado MILE HIGH CLUB -

Last Week: 15

Record: 43-61 (10-8)

Expected Win %: .352

The Skinny: The Vic Mullins of old seems to have returned batting .357 with 22 hrs after injury issues early in the season. The pitching seems to have taken a step back from their season 7 form with a team era just over 7

14. Milwaukee Blues -

Last Week: 14
Record: 37-67 (3-13)
Expected Win %: .385
The Skinny: OF Jesus Santiago leads the league in strikeouts with 133 and is on a pace to shatter the league record of. His 23 Hrs are his only saving grace. As a team the blues have struck out 870 times303 more times than league leader Oklahoma.

16. Cleveland Wild Dogs-

Last Week: 16

Record: 34-70 (5-13)

Expected Win %: .318

The Skinny: as a team they bat a league worst .238. The pitches far no better with 26 wild pitches and 46 hit batsmen both league leading. They still have not thrown a complete game.

Futures game season 1

I have often wondered, how accurate is the futures game in predicting Major leaguers? With this question I looked to the Season 1 futures and this is what I have found.

 

56 players named to the futures game of which:

10 retired before ever seeing ML action

1 retired after seeing ML action

3 are still waiting to break into the Majors

6 have had their taste of Ml action and are now back in the Minors

2 have ML service time and are now Free Agents.

34 are active in the Majors

Average ML time is 3.5 seasons

Futures have combined for 17 all star appearances, 2 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, a fireman of the year award, 1 MVP, and 1 ROY.

 

Top 4 futures stars are:

Ken Gibbs- 7 year vet- 4 time all-star ROY award winner, 4 time silver slugger, and AL MVP.

Dude Reed- 8 year vet- 2 time all-star 1 time silver slugger.

Jose Chavez- 8 year vet- 4 time all-star- 1 time winner of the Fireman of the year.

Harry Vosberg- 6 year vet 2 time all-star 1 time silver slugger.

 

Most look to make the majors and even have semi productive careers, It seem if a player make the futures game, he is either on the fast track to success or is already quite developed.

NL WEST DRAFT REVIEW

Colorado Springs Organizational Filler

Draft needs CF,3B,LF

	1	22	Walt Harris	3B	18	$2,040K	Fair swinging slugger, he is slow and plotting on the bases, but sure and steady in the field and at the plate. Solid pick at 22
	1	24	Joe Phillips	P	22	$1,850K	Developed starter who has 3 plus pitches to go with above average control and splits. He could be ready as early as next season
	1	33	Fred Zimmerman	P	18	$1,000K	Solid pitching prospect he is below average against the lefties but solid with 2 plus pitches everywhere else.
	1	38	Dennys Leonard	SS	18	$800K	Defenisve whiz kid way good contact and speed. He will steal 20+ a season and offer a gold glove caliber glove at short.
	1	41	York Bradford	RP	18	$680K	Elite closer 2 dominant pitches and excellent splits match well with his control and durability. He is a flyball type pitcher who will strike out many batters. Excellent late 1st rounder.
	2	65	Antonio Hollins	3B	21	$550K	Powerful bat with above average splits and eye. He is defensively suited for the outfield.
	3	97	Edwin Hernandez	3B	18	$425K	Another strong one. His eye and splits are average. His highlights will be him banging the ball out of the park.
	4	129	Jay Carter	P	18	$350K	3 above average pitches and good splits weigh against poor control for this reliever. He might be usable if you can take the walks.
	5	161	Roy Blank	C	18	---	NO INFO wants 2.5M probably unsignable

Summary: With 5 1^st rounders this team has only got itself better, They still did not address their need at CF, but did get a great Corner outfielder and a top 3B. This team was already strong and just got a lot better.

Grade: A-

San Diego Surf

Draft Needs: CF, RF,SP

	1	26	John Young	CF	18	$1,660K	Top flight 2 bagger. He has both the contact and power to succedd, He also runs very well and should field his position above average. He is average against right handed pitching.
	2	69	Fred Dixon	SS	20	$550K	Speedy role player, he is below average at short, but can field almost anywhere. He does not have a great bat and will struggle against righties. In summary if you need a pinch runner, or a situational leftie with little power Dixon is your man.
	3	101	Darryl Kolb	P	20	$425K	Career Minor leaguer with poor splits and mediocre pitch selction
	4	133	Eddie Embree	P	18	$350K	See above
	5	165	Tanyon Ankiel	P	19	$250K	I think we have found a pattern here.

Summary: 1 sure MLer and a situation bat is not the best draft class. They brought in no pitching talent. They picked up Young as a CF, but his fit is better at 2B. Everything else was just left alone.

Grade: C-

Cheyenne Marmots
Draft needs: RP, CF, SP

	1	30	Tony Hartzell	CF	18	$1,290K	Solid defensive CF, He has good contact and average power, but should put the ball in play a lot with his abilities. He is a slower, but better fielding version of LF Jumbo Guerrero. Solid 1st round pick
	1	39	Jason Chase	P	20	$760K	2 good pitches, but average control and splits. He might make the bigs, but he will not be effective for long.
	2	73	Tony Dong	2B	18	---	Base stealing 2nd sacker, he has little power and big dreams of playing college baseball. Looks like he is going to get to live the dream.
	3	105	Gerald Suzuki	SS	18	$350K	Defensive minded Shortstop. He is not going to offer much at the plate, but he does have good wheels and might make up for his hitting whoas with his glove and legs.
	4	137	Jumbo Roberts	RP	18	$350K	Below average control, mask a hard throwing righty, he has 2 plus pitches and excellent stamina and durability for a reliever. He just might walk in the winning run a couple times.
	5	169	Robert Weiss	LF	20	$250K	Average fielder and hitter, he has a great eye for the ball, but is average in almost every other way. He might sneak onto an opening day roster someday and even play for a few seasons.

Summary: Solid picks while covering their need at CF and RP. They made no huge reaches and only had 1 signing issue. They might have 5 ML'ers from this class.

Grade: B

Colorado MILE HIGH CLUB

Draft needs: SS, CF, C,SP

	1	25	Albert Montanez	LF	18	---	NO INFO
	2	68	Sammy Everett	SS	18	$550K	Defensively not a good shortstop. He is a slightly above average hitter with plus speed. He will be injury prone in his career. He is the classic 4A player.
	3	100	Jonathan Cogan	SS	19	$425K	Good defensive 2B or outfielder. He is an average hitter with good speed and base running. He might be a good pinch runner some day.
	4	132	Derrek Bailes	P	21	$350K	Career minor leaguer with below average control and splits. He does not have any dominant pitches.
	5	164	Denny Munoz	LF	18	$250K	Left handed hitting r 1B, overall he is an average hitter with average fielding ability. He can't hit righties very well.

Summary: Tried to get a SS that was worth a damn, and struck out twice. This class is full of throw aways and junk picks. Without See Montanez It is hard to grade what it could be, but for now it is a disappointment in Colorado.

Grade: D

AL Power Rankings, All-Star Break

The season is a little more than halfway done, and we finally have a new #1 in the American League. Madison finally passed Oklahoma City in overall record- despite a vastly inferior Pythagorean record- and has assumed the top spot in the rankings.

The league is also starting to show its balance-- 9 teams played within a game of .500 this week. It's also getting a little unpredictable. Only two teams managed more than 13 wins during that span, and they're ranked #1 and #13 this week.

1 Madison Massas


Last Week: #2
Record: 62-29 (16-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .593
Notes: Casey Kaline has 51 steals on the year and is on pace for 91 for the season. That would easily break the team record of 68, held by Ozzie Watson. Kaline has already passed Watson for the team's career lead with 330 and counting, and recently overtook Charlie Magruder to become the all-time career stolen base leader for Ryan World.

2 Oklahoma City Chickens


Last Week: #1
Record: 59-32 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .671
Notes: Donnie DuBose has 37 HR this season, putting him on pace for 65. That would easily give him the team's single-season record. Theodore Zoltan holds it right now with 53.

3 Mexico City Reds


Last Week: #4
Record: 55-36 (13-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .590
Notes: For the second straight week, they have a record identical to the NY Bombers. This week, they're .007 ahead in Pythagorean percentage, so they get the nod for the #3 spot. Stubby Cyr has 8 "plus" plays this year. That's already a team single-season record for 2B. Edwin Gibson holds the all-time single-season record for a 2B with 10. Cyr's great season has also moved him past Ken Gibbs for first place on the Ryan World career record list as well.

4 New York Bombers


Last Week: #3
Record: 55-36 (13-6 this week)
Expected Win %: .583
Notes: Luis Belliard owns the top four OBP seasons in Bombers' history. That may be about to change. Bill Darwin would top all of those if he continues his current OBP pace (.440).

5 San Juan Senators


Last Week: #6
Record: 49-42 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .533
Notes: Ismael Ortiz has nine complete games. He owns the team record with 12 and holds second place as well with 11. He's on pace to break the Ryan World record of 13, currently held by Bob Hatteberg.

6 Iowa City Eyesores


Last Week: #5
Record: 47-44 (9-13 this week)
Expected Win %: .439
Notes: Have slid to 15-26 record over the last 41 games. Despite that quarter-season slump and getting out-scored by more than 50 runs this year, they're still in first place. Bart Hitchcock's 84 strikeouts put him on pace to whiff 150 times this season. That would break the team record of Shannon Booker (138). The Ryan World record is 174 by Pedro Ortiz.

7 Kansas City McCoys


Last Week: #7
Record: 45-46 (10-12 this week)
Expected Win %: .553
Notes: David Seanez is on pace to put up 158 RBI this season. That's pretty remarkable, but still almost 30 shy of the team record of 184, held by Gill Davenport.

8 Chicago Bearcubs

Last Week: #9
Record: 46-45 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .538
Notes: Matt Shave has 49 HR through 91 games, putting him on pace for 87 over the season. That would beat Freddie Reynolds' team (and Ryan World) record of 84.

9 Boston Badasses


Last Week: #8
Record: 46-45 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .503
Notes: Gabe Forster is on pace for 71 appearances this year. That would be good for the second-most games for a pitcher in team history. Rex Fryman pitched in 79 games in season 1.

10 Las Vegas Gamble


Last Week: #10
Record: 46-45 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .506
Notes: Louis Medina posted 10 complete games in season 6. No Las Vegas pitcher has thrown a complete game this season.

11 Wichita Sizzlers


Last Week: #11
Record: 43-48 (11-11 this week)
Expected Win %: .547
Notes: Vicente Arias has stolen 62 bases so far this season. He's on pace for 110 this year, which would easily set not only a team record but a Ryan World record as well. 89 is the best any Shocker has ever managed (Arias did that in season 7) and 92 is the world record (Brandon Dunston did it in season 2). Unfortunately for Arias, he's only fifth in the league in steals right now. Nashville's Sam Miller has already broken that single-season record despite a recent injury.

12 San Jose Snakes


Last Week: #12
Record: 43-48 (12-10 this week)
Expected Win %: .472
Notes: Ed Karl and Vladimir Lopez both have six wins this season and are on pace to tie for the team lead with 12. That's nothing new-- no pitcher with this franchise has won more than 12 games in a year since season 5.

13 Washington DC Old School Warriors


Last Week: #15
Record: 40-51 (14-8 this week)
Expected Win %: .434
Notes: Trevor Jackson has 41 SB through 91 team games. That's more than seven AL teams and puts him on pace for 73 this year. However, it would only be good for fourth on the team single-season record list. Apparently there are a lot of experienced thieves in Washington, DC. Who would have guessed?

14 Durham Bulls


Last Week: #13
Record: 38-53 (10-12 this week)
Expected Win %: .437
Notes: Richie Cormier has 37 HR in just 82 games (the team has played 91). That puts him on pace for 66 this year which would break the team record of 63 (held by Pedro Ortiz).

15 Philadelphia Hellraisers


Last Week: #14
Record: 33-58 (7-15 this week)
Expected Win %: .338
Notes: Kevin Burke has a decent shot to break his own franchise record for saves in a season. He has 20 at the break. He set the team record with 38 last season and also holds third place on the list with 30 the year before.

16 St. Louis Stampede


Last Week: #16
Record: 27-64 (6-16 this week)
Expected Win %: .322
Notes: Two pitchers on the staff are threatening the franchise record for losses in a season (21). Yannick Fonville and Pablo Javier have 10 each at the all-star break, and long reliever Ron Roberts has a shot as well, with 9 losses to his credit.