Thursday, April 17, 2008

AL SOUTH Predictions



Oklahoma City Chickens
edric

Infield A-
Outfield B+
Starting Pitcher B+
Relief Pitcher A-
Bench D
Farm A


Intangibles/ownership: Team should compete with Chicago for the top scoring in the AL. Positional depth is weak with 2 DH’s holding half the bench slots. Starting pitching is a good fix of old and new, could be potent. This is the team to beat in the AL, barring injury

Projected record 104-58




Mexico City Reds
factorganize


Infield B-
Outfield B-
Starting Pitcher C+
Relief Pitcher B-
Bench C-
Farm B

Intangibles/ownership: team might struggle at times, but should hold their own. In long stretches late in the season the pitches lack of durability might cost them

Projected record 79-83



San Juan Senators
Lord_Yankee


Infield B
Outfield B
Starting Pitcher C
Relief Pitcher C
Bench B
Farm C-

Intangibles/ownership: solid offensive team, but lasts the pitching to compete. They need at least 2 new pitchers to stay competitive with other’s in the division

Projected record 74-88



St. Louis Stampede
tmfran


Infield C-
Outfield C+
Starting Pitcher C
Relief Pitcher C+
Bench C+
Farm B+

Intangibles/ownership: team is intact but their focus will be on the future. The talent at the majors will not cut it day to day

Projected record 68-94

AL EAST Predictions


Boston Badasses
beatinu2


Infield B-
Outfield B+
Starting Pitcher B
Relief Pitcher B+
Bench C+
Farm C+

Intangibles/ownership Should easily take his division for another year, but as the team ages they show kinks in their armor. Team stands at a crossroads for the future


Projected record 90-72




Washington D.C. old school warriors
mjdolloff


Infield B-

Outfield B+
Starting Pitcher B
Relief Pitcher B
Bench B
Farm B

Intangibles/ownership Team sits on the verge of greatness. They have an elite SS in cooper and have a speedy outfield. They just need to manage their assets better. The clubs made the moves to be competitive for a run


Projected record: 86-76




Durham Bulls
bigalric

Infield B-
Outfield: B-
Starting Pitcher C-
Relief Pitcher C+
Bench C-
Farm B-

Intangibles/ownership Scotty Rose keeps the infield in line, but he is the only elite player in the infield. The ML team is the image of average.

Projected record 75-87



Iowa City Eye Sores
jjoe123



Infield B
Outfield C-
Starting Pitcher B-
Relief Pitcher C
Bench D
Farm D+

Intangibles/ownership: Farm is nearly barren, but they have good young talent at most positions. They need a few more players to compete in the Majors though, but should have a better record than the previous season

Projected record 74-88

AL NORTH Predictions




Chicago Bear Cubs bowlum

Infield B+

Outfield B

Starting Pitcher A

Relief Pitcher C

Bench C

Farm C-

Intangibles/ownership: Reining CY Young and AL MVP reside here. Last year will be proven a fluke with this teams bats and arms. They do have a huge Achilles heel in their relievers and lack of a versitial bench. One long injury to a skill position could ruin the Cub’s season

Projected record 93-69


Madison Massa's btkantz

Infield B+

Outfield A

Starting Pitcher B-

Relief Pitcher B

Bench B

Farm C

Intangibles/ownership Last year’s World Series champs are a year older, but still have the talent to contend. Defensively they have a Weakness in CF fielding, but that might be the only hole in the field. Starting pitching is older and on the decline, but still have a wicked 1-2 punch

Projected record 91-71


New York Bombers Bernie10025

Infield C-

Outfield B-

Starting Pitcher B-

Relief Pitcher B+

Bench D

Farm B+

Intangibles/ownership Solid team, but fielding will be an issue. The Bombers have sub-standard fielding throughout the infield. The starting pitching is on the decline, but still has a lot of fire power. This team is rebuilding in the minors

Projected record 79-83


Philadelphia Hellraisers B. Dorsey

Infield C
Outfield B-
Starting Pitcher D-
Relief Pitcher C-
Bench D
Farm B

Intangibles/ownership team has had top 10 picks the last few years, and could be in the line for another. The Hellraisers need pitching to compete.

Projected record 65-97

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

HBD 101: Player Evaluation

With Ryan being a public world, and a resulting influx of owners who are brand new to HBD each season, this seems like a good place to share some lessons learned from my own experience.

Some of it will be common sense, some might be somewhat well-documented already, but hopefully each new owner can learn a little something that will help them enjoy this incredible game a little more.
  • The first, and most important lesson is that overall (OVR) rating means virtually nothing. It can be a very, very, very general measure of a guy's worth, but all 84s are not created equal. In many cases, a player's OVR will be boosted or pushed down by ratings that will have little or nothing to do with their actual performance. Pitchers can see their overall numbers boosted because they're decent hitters, DHs can have good fielding ratings, etc.
  • When evaluating a hitter, most owners look at a combination of contact, power, VL/VR splits (how he rates vs. lefties and vs. righties) and batting eye. Everyone has their own ideas on which ratings really make a hitter successful. It's not hard to figure out which owners value which traits. Just go into the trade offer screen for a team, and select "all players" and "all levels" then sort by each column. If you see half of a certain owner's players are all 50+ in contact or power (or any other category), that's obviously something they value. If you look at the top 5 or 10 offensive teams and they all seem to value the same ratings, that is a good indication that those ratings might have a solid link to performance.
  • Evaluating pitchers is a little more complicated, in my experience. In addition to stamina (which determines how many pitches a guy can throw in one outing) and durability (which determines how quickly a guy recovers after an outing), many owners will take a close look at a pitcher's control, VL/VR splits, pitch ratings, groundball/flyball ratio, and velocity. Again, it's worth looking at some of the successful teams in the league to see which traits they seem to emphasize.
  • You may find that some of your pitchers' performances may not match up to what you expect based on their ratings. Hitters are often able to succeed even with one (or more) rating category that's low. For example, a batter with a low power rating could still put up a .410 on-base percentage, or a guy with a low contact rating might strike out 120 times, but also hit 50 HR. That's often not true for pitchers. A guy with great VL/VR numbers might still post a WHIP of 1.60 if his control rating is in the 30s, or a pitcher with a low groundball-to-flyball rating might give up a lot of home runs if he's playing half of his games in a hitters' park.
  • Evaluating pitchers is even more tricky because of the role that defense plays. A pitcher with great ratings and a high groundball rating might struggle if your infield defense is bad. Similarly, a pitcher with a low groundball rating (who gives up a lot of flyballs) would probably suffer if you put a bunch of catchers and first basemen in the outfield-- balls that should be caught for outs would be falling in for doubles.
  • Defense is something that a lot of new owners tend to overlook. It's easy and fun to field a team of guys who can hit the ball 500 feet (and power-hitting 1B and DH are generally pretty easy and cheap to sign) but sticking one of them at a middle-infield position or CF would be a disaster. Fortunately, defense is one of the easiest things to evaluate. In the Manager's Office screen, go to Player settings --> Edit player settings. Choose "position players" and then click on any player's position. It will pop up with a screen that tells you the average ratings for a player at every position. If a guy's ratings are at or above those numbers, he will be a good player at that position, whether he has ever played there or not. That means that if a guy's ratings say he will be a good SS, he can also play pretty much anywhere else on the field as well. It's a little mind-numbing to go through your entire organization, but playing guys in their proper positions will help your pitchers' stats tremendously.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Top 10 RP Prospects

Orlando Frias
San Jose
Snakes
Age: 21B/T: L/L
Born: Pembroke, GA
Position(s): P (SP3)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Babe Rose
Montreal
Money Shots
Age: 23B/T: R/R
Born: Pasadena, MD
Position(s): P (SuA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Winston Ryan
Oklahoma City
Chickens
Age: 23B/T: R/R
Born: Kaukauna, WI
Position(s): P (SuB)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Rafael Otanez
Boston
Badasses
Age: 23B/T: S/R
Born: Santa Cruz, AW
Position(s): P (SuA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


J.J. Greenwood
Cheyenne
Marmots
Age: 22B/T: L/L
Born: Stoughton, WI
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Roy Murphy
Cincinnati
Bowties
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: Sharpsburg, GA
Position(s): P (P)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Antonio Lo
New York
Burros
Age: 26B/T: L/L
Born: Kyoto, JP
Position(s): P (SuA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Eduardo Campos
Colorado Springs
Organizational Filler
Age: 20B/T: R/R
Born: Hato Mayor Del Rey, DO
Position(s): P (P)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Pedro Escobar
New York
Bombers
Age: 22B/T: S/R
Born: Guayubin, DO
Position(s): P (SuA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Jeff Watson
Cincinnati
Bowties
Age: 22B/T: R/R
Born: Crescent, OK
Position(s): P (ClA)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Top 10 SP prospects

Johnny Powell
Wichita
Sizzlers
Age: 21B/T: S/L
Born: South Kent, CT
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Bob Mann
New York
Burros
Age: 26B/T: L/L
Born: Senath, MO
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Ryan Perry
New York
Burros
Age: 23B/T: R/R
Born: Russell, KY
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Darwin Power
Iowa City
Eye Sores
Age: 22B/T: R/R
Born: Clayton, OH
Position(s): P (T1B)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Calvin Coco
Little Rock
Labradors
Age: 20B/T: R/R
Born: Maplewood, NJ
Position(s): P (SP4)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Kiki Arroyo
San Juan
Senators
Age: 21B/T: S/R
Born: Swanton, OH
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Corey Webb
Madison
Massa's
Age: 20B/T: R/R
Born: Fort Defiance, VA
Position(s): P (T2B)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Alfredo Velazquez
Kansas City
McCoys
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: New Lexington, OH
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Andres Amaral
New York
Burros
Age: 21B/T: L/L
Born: Don Gregorio, DO
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Clayton Mills
Little Rock
Labradors
Age: 22B/T: L/L
Born: Warren, MI
Position(s): P (SP4)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Top 10 RF Prospects

Juan Estrada
Wichita
Sizzlers
Age: 19B/T: R/R
Born: Hallandale, FL
Position(s): RF/1B/LF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


William Stewart
Boston
Badasses
Age: 22B/T: L/L
Born: Deer Park, WA
Position(s): RF
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Chris Dwyer
Atlanta
Braves
Age: 21B/T: L/L
Born: Manhattan, KS
Position(s): RF
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Bill Stephenson
Philadelphia
Hellraisers
Age: 23B/T: R/R
Born: Franklin, LA
Position(s): RF/1B/LF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Carlton Robinson
Hartford
T Ball
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Ocala, FL
Position(s): RF/LF
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Dmitri Miller
New York
Burros
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: Rochelle, GA
Position(s): RF
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J.R. Griffith
Madison
Massa's
Age: 25B/T: S/L
Born: Perry, IA
Position(s): RF/1B/2B/LF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Adam Corsi
New York
Burros
Age: 24B/T: R/R
Born: Bay Minette, AL
Position(s): RF
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Carlos Ramirez
New York
Bombers
Age: 24B/T: R/R
Born: Monte Cristi, DO
Position(s): RF/1B/2B/LF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile


Doyle Twitchell
Milwaukee
Blues
Age: 19B/T: L/L
Born: New Carlisle, IN
Position(s): RF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile